As of October 24, 2026, 08:06 PM ET, Polymarket traders price November 30 at 28.5% in ChatGPT Full Outage by...? — $28.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, November 30, is priced at 28.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +5.0 pts; past week: -8.5 pts.
Since September 30, 2026, November 30 has traded between 14.0% and 64.0%. It opened at 36.5% and last traded at 20.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 40.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 25.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 25.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 24.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 14.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 23.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 20.5% |
November 30 is favored at 28.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 | 28¢ | 28.5% | +5.0 pts | $3.7K | 13.1% |
| October 31 | 12¢ | 12.0% | +1.5 pts | $5.1K | 17.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 27¢ / ask 30¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$28.3K has been traded on this event in total, $20 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered. Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,080 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pleasant-Complexity | No | 1,080 | $772 |
| Grim-Cob | Yes | 789 | $225 |
| Capital-Cockroach | Yes | 545 | $155 |
| Murky-Cowboy | No | 381 | $273 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 79 | $22 |
| Wiry-Walkway | Yes | 67 | $19 |
| Prudent-Champagne | No | 60 | $43 |
| Best-Intentionality | No | 47 | $33 |
| Normal-Invader | Yes | 25 | $7 |
| Required-Horn | Yes | 20 | $6 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:39 PM ET | No | BUY | 73.0% | $37 |
| Oct 24, 08:31 AM ET | No | SELL | 72.0% | $14 |
| Oct 23, 06:41 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 24.0% | $24 |
| Oct 23, 05:45 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 23.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 05:44 PM ET | No | BUY | 77.0% | $31 |
| Oct 23, 05:10 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 24.0% | $24 |
| Oct 23, 05:10 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 25.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 05:10 PM ET | No | BUY | 76.0% | $39 |
| Oct 23, 04:21 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 22.0% | $16 |
| Oct 22, 09:03 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.5% | $4 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is November 30 at 28.5%. Next is October 31 at 12.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/chatgpt-full-outage-by-august-31-20260715010037673?via=bro
$28.3K in total volume, with $20 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
November 30, priced at 28.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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