As of October 24, 2026, 07:49 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 at 17.5% in China coup attempt by...? — $166.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2027, is priced at 17.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: +6.5 pts.
Since October 09, 2026, December 31, 2027 has traded between 9.5% and 27.5%. It opened at 27.5% and last traded at 17.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 11.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 11.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 10.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 21.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 20.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 18.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 17.5% |
December 31, 2027 is favored at 17.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 18¢ | 17.5% | -0.5 pts | $27 | 0.0% |
| December 31, 2026 | 4¢ | 4.3% | -0.1 pts | $166.1K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 27¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 31¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$166.2K has been traded on this event in total, $98 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 10 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Playful-Badger | Yes | 10 | $2 |
| First-Node | No | 5 | $4 |
| Rare-Growth | No | 5 | $4 |
| Blind-Conflict | Yes | 1 | $0 |
| 0x68edbe86… | No | 1 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 10:06 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.2% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 09:39 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.2% | $12 |
| Oct 23, 11:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.3% | $56 |
| Oct 23, 11:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.2% | $14 |
| Oct 23, 02:50 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 02:50 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.2% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 05:47 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $14 |
| Oct 22, 10:39 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.5% | $95 |
| Oct 22, 08:46 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.3% | $10 |
| Oct 21, 09:14 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.6% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2027 at 17.5%. Next is December 31, 2026 at 4.3%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/china-coup-attempt-before-2027?via=bro
$166.2K in total volume, with $98 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, 2027, priced at 17.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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