As of October 24, 2026, 07:46 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2026 at 6.0% in China x India military clash by...? — $333.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2026, is priced at 6.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past month: -0.5 pts.
Since November 13, 2025, December 31, 2026 has traded between 6.0% and 50.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 6.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 6.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 6.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 6.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 6.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 6.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 6.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 6.0% |
December 31, 2026 is favored at 6.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 6¢ | 6.0% | — | $222.5K | 66.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 7¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$333.3K has been traded on this event in total, $57 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and India between January 29, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Indian military forces. Hand-to-hand combat with the use of melee weapons between military personnel, will qualify. For example the 2020 Galwan Valley clash and the 2022 Yangtse clash would both count. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however the Indian Coast Guard (ICG) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 8,039 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shadowy-Eve | No | 8,039 | $7.6K |
| Uniform-Pith | Yes | 6,509 | $391 |
| Kaleidoscopic-Hemisphere | Yes | 4,103 | $246 |
| LlamaLoco0000 | Yes | 2,725 | $164 |
| Giddy-Sweatshop | Yes | 2,300 | $138 |
| Free-Gnat | No | 2,014 | $1.9K |
| Threadbare-Signal | Yes | 1,109 | $67 |
| Unhappy-Pressurization | No | 1,000 | $940 |
| Neighboring-Someplace | No | 946 | $889 |
| Elderly-Dimple | No | 889 | $836 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:24 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 03:48 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.0% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 09:13 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $4 |
| Oct 18, 11:30 PM ET | No | SELL | 93.0% | $5 |
| Oct 15, 02:19 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.9% | $150 |
| Oct 15, 12:35 AM ET | No | SELL | 92.0% | $2 |
| Oct 13, 08:56 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $44 |
| Oct 13, 05:00 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $101 |
| Oct 12, 08:28 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.3% | $5 |
| Oct 12, 05:48 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 6.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/china-x-india-military-clash-by-december-31?via=bro
$333.3K in total volume, with $57 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, 2026, priced at 6.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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