As of October 24, 2026, 08:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 31, 2026 at 3.1% in Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...? — $3.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, October 31, 2026, is priced at 3.1%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.1 pts; past week: +0.2 pts; past month: -55.9 pts.
Since August 08, 2026, October 31, 2026 has traded between 2.9% and 60.5%. It opened at 50.5% and last traded at 3.1%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 2.9% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 3.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 3.1% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 3.2% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 3.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 3.2% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 3.1% |
October 31, 2026 is favored at 3.1%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31, 2026 | 3¢ | 3.1% | -0.1 pts | $315 | 9.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 5¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.2K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Resolution source: https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 261 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expert-Neuropathologist | No | 261 | $253 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | Yes | 154 | $5 |
| Good-Gram-Prostacyclin | Yes | 50 | $2 |
| Rowdy-Tenement | Yes | 28 | $1 |
| Pretty-Seaside | Yes | 24 | $1 |
| Frail-Prayer | Yes | 5 | $0 |
| Profuse-Essential | No | 1 | $1 |
| Essential-Diarist | Yes | 1 | $0 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 02:54 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.3% | $10 |
| Oct 21, 07:11 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.5% | $0 |
| Oct 11, 04:04 AM ET | No | SELL | 90.0% | $8 |
| Oct 09, 06:47 AM ET | No | SELL | 89.0% | $1 |
| Oct 09, 06:47 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.0% | $1 |
| Oct 09, 12:56 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.4% | $252 |
| Oct 08, 05:44 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $10 |
| Sep 01, 10:52 AM ET | No | SELL | 50.0% | $1 |
| Aug 21, 01:27 PM ET | No | BUY | 77.0% | $1 |
| Aug 21, 01:18 PM ET | No | BUY | 77.0% | $6 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 31, 2026 at 3.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/chopsticks-catch-a-starship-upper-stage-byptptpt-20260807172057707?via=bro
$3.2K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX.
October 31, 2026, priced at 3.1% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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