As of October 24, 2026, 08:03 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 61.0% in Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026? — $33.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 61.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +3.5 pts; past week: -8.0 pts; past month: +14.0 pts.
Since February 24, 2026, No has traded between 33.0% and 88.5%. It opened at 66.5% and last traded at 61.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 58.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 60.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 64.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 59.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 64.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 61.5% |
No is favored at 61.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 61¢ | 61.0% | -3.5 pts | $33.7K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 39¢ | 39.0% | +3.5 pts | $33.7K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 38¢ / ask 40¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$33.7K has been traded on this event in total, $10 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Christine Lagarde ceases to be the President of the European Central Bank for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lagarde's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Christine Lagarde and the European Central Bank; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,644 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Organic-Test | Yes | 1,644 | $641 |
| Helpful-Blame | No | 1,239 | $756 |
| Cultivated-Diesel | No | 1,195 | $729 |
| Overdue-Bowl | Yes | 1,061 | $414 |
| Remarkable-Underpass | No | 1,055 | $643 |
| Optimal-Miss | Yes | 1,000 | $390 |
| Mundane-Hood | Yes | 991 | $387 |
| Wobbly-Chain | No | 954 | $582 |
| Villainous-Crook | Yes | 890 | $347 |
| Kooky-Uncertainty | No | 800 | $488 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 12:16 PM ET | No | BUY | 65.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 12:16 PM ET | No | BUY | 62.0% | $3 |
| Oct 22, 03:23 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 35.0% | $31 |
| Oct 21, 07:19 PM ET | No | SELL | 56.4% | $19 |
| Oct 21, 05:28 PM ET | No | BUY | 68.0% | $34 |
| Oct 21, 04:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 28.0% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 04:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 28.0% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 04:19 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 38.0% | $8 |
| Oct 21, 03:00 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 40.0% | $40 |
| Oct 20, 11:46 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 43.0% | $3 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 61.0%. Next is Yes at 39.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/christine-lagarde-out-as-ecb-president-in-2026?via=bro
$33.7K in total volume, with $10 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 61.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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