As of October 24, 2026, 08:00 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 at 86.5% in Claude 6 released by...? — $42.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2027, is priced at 86.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -5.5 pts; past week: -6.0 pts; past month: -3.0 pts.
Since September 04, 2026, December 31, 2027 has traded between 73.5% and 92.5%. It opened at 73.5% and last traded at 88.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 89.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 92.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 88.0% |
December 31, 2027 is favored at 86.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 86¢ | 86.5% | -5.5 pts | $11.0K | 26.2% |
| June 30, 2027 | 72¢ | 71.5% | +1.0 pts | $12.2K | 29.0% |
| March 31, 2027 | 38¢ | 38.0% | +0.5 pts | $18.9K | 44.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 7¢ (bid 83¢ / ask 90¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$42.2K has been traded on this event in total, $95 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 06:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 6 model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Claude" and be designated as version 6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. Any of Anthropic's general-purpose model families qualifies, including Fable, Opus, Sonnet, Haiku, or a successor general-purpose family, provided the version designation of 6 or higher appears in the name or model identifier. For example, Claude Fable 6, Claude Opus 6, Claude Sonnet 6, or a later version such as Claude Fable 6.1 or Claude 7 would qualify, while models that retain a version designation below 6, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Opus 5, and models that do not carry an explicit version number of 6 or higher in their name or identifier, regardless of how they are described or positioned, will not qualify. A Mythos-branded release available only through Anthropic's verification or trusted-access programs, and task-specific products or restricted lines such as Claude Code, Claude Gov, or Claude Security, will not qualify on their own. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 216 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Growing-Way | Yes | 216 | $187 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 117 | $16 |
| Heartfelt-Eyrie | Yes | 100 | $86 |
| Rowdy-Tenement | No | 80 | $11 |
| Light-Constraint-Pita | Yes | 70 | $61 |
| Faint-Ecclesia | No | 55 | $7 |
| Pleasing-Elm | No | 46 | $6 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 45 | $6 |
| Cloudy-Verve | Yes | 25 | $22 |
| Grimy-Turnstile | No | 21 | $3 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 12:40 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 41.0% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 12:06 PM ET | No | BUY | 62.0% | $17 |
| Oct 24, 12:06 PM ET | No | SELL | 60.0% | $24 |
| Oct 23, 06:42 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 37.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 05:27 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 69.0% | $11 |
| Oct 23, 05:26 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 70.0% | $11 |
| Oct 23, 02:51 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 92.0% | $18 |
| Oct 23, 02:51 PM ET | No | BUY | 8.0% | $11 |
| Oct 23, 01:41 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 38.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 11:26 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 69.0% | $14 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2027 at 86.5%. Next is June 30, 2027 at 71.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/claude-6-released-byptptpt?via=bro
$42.2K in total volume, with $95 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 06:59 PM ET.
December 31, 2027, priced at 86.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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