Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Claude 6 released by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:00 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 at 86.5% in Claude 6 released by...? — $42.2K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $95.
Leading outcome
December 31, 2027
86%
A 86.5% price implies roughly a 86-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −5.5 pts7D −6.0 pts30D −3.0 pts
December 31, 202786.5%
June 30, 202771.5%
Bid
83¢
Ask
90¢
Spread
7¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 04, 2026: 73.5% – 92.5% · Opened at 73.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Claude 6 released by...?
Category
AI, Tech, Claude, Anthropic, AI Releases
Scheduled end
December 31, 2027, 06:59 PM ET
Total volume
$42.2K
Volume (24h)
$95
Liquidity
$24.0K
Markets
3
Leading outcome
December 31, 2027 — 86.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, 2027, is priced at 86.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -5.5 pts; past week: -6.0 pts; past month: -3.0 pts.

Since September 04, 2026, December 31, 2027 has traded between 73.5% and 92.5%. It opened at 73.5% and last traded at 88.0%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202692.5%
Oct 18, 202692.5%
Oct 19, 202692.5%
Oct 20, 202692.5%
Oct 22, 202689.5%
Oct 23, 202692.0%
Oct 24, 202688.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31, 2027 is favored at 86.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 31, 202786¢86.5%-5.5 pts$11.0K26.2%
June 30, 202772¢71.5%+1.0 pts$12.2K29.0%
March 31, 202738¢38.0%+0.5 pts$18.9K44.8%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 7¢ (bid 83¢ / ask 90¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$42.2K has been traded on this event in total, $95 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 06:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 6 model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Claude" and be designated as version 6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. Any of Anthropic's general-purpose model families qualifies, including Fable, Opus, Sonnet, Haiku, or a successor general-purpose family, provided the version designation of 6 or higher appears in the name or model identifier. For example, Claude Fable 6, Claude Opus 6, Claude Sonnet 6, or a later version such as Claude Fable 6.1 or Claude 7 would qualify, while models that retain a version designation below 6, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Opus 5, and models that do not carry an explicit version number of 6 or higher in their name or identifier, regardless of how they are described or positioned, will not qualify. A Mythos-branded release available only through Anthropic's verification or trusted-access programs, and task-specific products or restricted lines such as Claude Code, Claude Gov, or Claude Security, will not qualify on their own. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 216 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Growing-WayYes216$187
Belated-GlueNo117$16
Heartfelt-EyrieYes100$86
Rowdy-TenementNo80$11
Light-Constraint-PitaYes70$61
Faint-EcclesiaNo55$7
Pleasing-ElmNo46$6
Snappy-RoosterNo45$6
Cloudy-VerveYes25$22
Grimy-TurnstileNo21$3

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL Yes — $177 at 88.5%BUY No — $123 at 61.9%BUY Yes — $73 at 73.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 12:40 PM ETYesBUY41.0%$12
Oct 24, 12:06 PM ETNoBUY62.0%$17
Oct 24, 12:06 PM ETNoSELL60.0%$24
Oct 23, 06:42 PM ETYesBUY37.0%$2
Oct 23, 05:27 PM ETYesSELL69.0%$11
Oct 23, 05:26 PM ETYesSELL70.0%$11
Oct 23, 02:51 PM ETYesSELL92.0%$18
Oct 23, 02:51 PM ETNoBUY8.0%$11
Oct 23, 01:41 PM ETYesBUY38.0%$5
Oct 23, 11:26 AM ETYesSELL69.0%$14

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Claude 6 released by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2027 at 86.5%. Next is June 30, 2027 at 71.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/claude-6-released-byptptpt?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Claude 6 released by...??

$42.2K in total volume, with $95 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.

When does Claude 6 released by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 06:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Claude 6 released by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, 2027, priced at 86.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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