Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Claude Fable 5.2+: Output Token Price Debut?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:14 PM ET, Polymarket traders price $40+ at 94.0% in Claude Fable 5.2+: Output Token Price Debut? — $18.6K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $1.
Leading outcome
$40+
94%
A 94.0% price implies roughly a 94-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −0.4 pts7D −4.5 pts30D +23.0 pts
$40+94.0%
$50+52.0%
Bid
93¢
Ask
95¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 24, 2026: 61.5% – 98.4% · Opened at 73.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Claude Fable 5.2+: Output Token Price Debut?
Category
AI, Tech, Debut, Fable, Claude, Compute, Anthropic, AI Releases
Scheduled end
June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$18.6K
Volume (24h)
$1
Liquidity
$15.5K
Markets
4
Leading outcome
$40+ — 94.0%
Resolution source
https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, $40+, is priced at 94.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.4 pts; past week: -4.5 pts; past month: +23.0 pts.

Since September 24, 2026, $40+ has traded between 61.5% and 98.4%. It opened at 73.0% and last traded at 94.0%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202698.4%
Oct 18, 202696.9%
Oct 19, 202697.2%
Oct 20, 202696.5%
Oct 22, 202695.3%
Oct 23, 202694.3%
Oct 24, 202694.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

$40+ is favored at 94.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
$40+94¢94.0%-0.4 pts$6.1K32.7%
$50+52¢52.0%-2.0 pts$6.3K34.0%
$60+14¢14.5%—$3.6K19.1%
$75+3¢2.9%-0.1 pts$2.6K14.2%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 93¢ / ask 95¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$18.6K has been traded on this event in total, $1 of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Fable model (5.2+) debuts at a standard output token price of at least the specified price, in USD per million tokens. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. The debut price is the “Base tokens” output price for default global inference, at the rate that does not trigger a long-context surcharge, announced by Anthropic or listed on its official API pricing page when the model is first made available to the general public. An introductory price qualifies. Batch, fast mode, cached, US-only inference, and other data-residency prices do not qualify. If multiple qualifying models debut on the same date, the highest qualifying price applies. If no qualifying model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,000 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Piercing-FormationYes1,000$940
Mediocre-WrenNo403$24
Irresponsible-Chord-HunterNo400$24
Sore-PitchingYes359$337
Belated-GlueNo342$21
Required-HornNo140$8
Direct-ChainstayYes101$95
Athletic-CutletNo95$6
Modern-OverloadYes74$70
Kaleidoscopic-OuthouseNo60$4

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL Yes — $338 at 95.5%SELL No — $216 at 87.0%SELL No — $215 at 93.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 12:50 PM ETYesBUY94.7%$1
Oct 23, 03:07 PM ETYesSELL93.4%$7
Oct 23, 03:06 PM ETNoBUY5.0%$4
Oct 23, 03:04 PM ETYesSELL93.3%$56
Oct 23, 03:04 PM ETNoBUY6.6%$4
Oct 23, 03:04 PM ETNoBUY6.4%$1
Oct 23, 03:04 PM ETYesSELL93.6%$12
Oct 23, 03:04 PM ETNoBUY6.2%$3
Oct 23, 03:04 PM ETNoBUY6.1%$20
Oct 23, 03:04 PM ETNoBUY6.3%$3

Related markets

More AI

Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 2028 29.5% · 24H VOL $87.4K

Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Claude Fable 5.2+: Output Token Price Debut??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is $40+ at 94.0%. Next is $50+ at 52.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/claude-fable-5pt2-output-token-price-debut?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Claude Fable 5.2+: Output Token Price Debut??

$18.6K in total volume, with $1 traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.

When does Claude Fable 5.2+: Output Token Price Debut? end?

The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing.

What is the most likely outcome of Claude Fable 5.2+: Output Token Price Debut?, according to Polymarket traders?

$40+, priced at 94.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

Trade it on Polymarket

Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.

Sign Up on Polymarket

New here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.