As of October 24, 2026, 06:32 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2026 at 3.8% in Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by...? — $293.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2026, is priced at 3.8%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.2 pts; past week: -0.5 pts.
Since February 24, 2026, December 31, 2026 has traded between 2.9% and 49.5%. It opened at 49.5% and last traded at 3.9%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 4.3% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 4.2% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 4.2% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 4.2% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 4.7% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 5.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 3.9% |
December 31, 2026 is favored at 3.8%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 4¢ | 3.8% | -1.2 pts | $40.6K | 13.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 4¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$293.0K has been traded on this event in total, $854 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Claudia Sheinbaum ceases to be President of Mexico for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Claudia Sheinbaum's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Claudia Sheinbaum and the government of Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 4,316 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0742a384… | Yes | 4,316 | $164 |
| Dull-Universe | No | 3,202 | $3.1K |
| Skeletal-Liver | No | 1,200 | $1.2K |
| Belgaron | No | 1,180 | $1.1K |
| Skinny-Flint | Yes | 967 | $37 |
| Admirable-Samurai | No | 911 | $877 |
| Free-Peen-Technologist | Yes | 778 | $30 |
| Unripe-Capon | No | 606 | $583 |
| Little-Millennium | Yes | 584 | $22 |
| 0xf63a5281… | Yes | 556 | $21 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:06 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.1% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 02:37 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.8% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 02:37 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 02:37 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 02:36 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.2% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 02:36 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.5% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 02:36 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.5% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 02:36 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.5% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 02:36 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.5% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 02:36 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.7% | $19 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 3.8%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/claudia-sheinbaum-out-as-president-of-mexico-by-june-30?via=bro
$293.0K in total volume, with $854 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, 2026, priced at 3.8% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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