As of October 24, 2026, 08:16 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 30.5% in Clavicular in jail by...? — $15.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 30.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -6.0 pts; past week: -4.5 pts.
Since October 01, 2026, December 31 has traded between 9.5% and 39.5%. It opened at 24.5% and last traded at 30.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 26.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 30.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 38.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 39.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 33.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 36.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 30.5% |
December 31 is favored at 30.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 30¢ | 30.5% | -6.0 pts | $1.1K | 7.3% |
| October 31 | 2¢ | 2.3% | — | $8.5K | 56.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 29¢ (bid 16¢ / ask 45¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$15.1K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Braden Eric Peters (known as Clavicular) serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 80 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oddball-Poison | Yes | 80 | $24 |
| Infatuated-Spider | No | 80 | $56 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | Yes | 50 | $15 |
| Poor-Tavern | No | 40 | $28 |
| Required-Horn | No | 26 | $18 |
| Snappy-Rooster | Yes | 22 | $7 |
| Charming-Kidney-Imagination | Yes | 20 | $6 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 20 | $6 |
| Perfumed-Moat | No | 20 | $14 |
| Dim-Crumb | No | 20 | $14 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 08:06 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.0% | $0 |
| Oct 17, 12:11 PM ET | No | SELL | 96.3% | $11 |
| Oct 13, 07:18 PM ET | No | BUY | 92.0% | $5 |
| Oct 13, 01:42 PM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $2 |
| Oct 13, 01:42 PM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $19 |
| Oct 13, 01:42 PM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $18 |
| Oct 13, 01:42 PM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $18 |
| Oct 13, 01:42 PM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $20 |
| Oct 13, 01:42 PM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $18 |
| Oct 13, 01:42 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 12.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 30.5%. Next is October 31 at 2.3%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/clavicular-in-jail-by-september-30?via=bro
$15.1K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 30.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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