As of October 24, 2026, 09:22 PM ET, Polymarket traders price New York at 61.0% in Closer Governor Race: California or New York? — $163 traded so far.
The leading outcome, New York, is priced at 61.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -10.0 pts; past week: -3.0 pts.
Since October 08, 2026, New York has traded between 37.5% and 78.0%. It opened at 37.5% and last traded at 50.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 58.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 58.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 57.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 59.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 59.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 60.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 50.5% |
New York is favored at 61.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York | 61¢ | 61.0% | +10.0 pts | $163 | 100.0% |
| California | 39¢ | 39.0% | -10.0 pts | $163 | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 68¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 73¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$163 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "California" if the regularly-scheduled gubernatorial race in California has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the New York gubernatorial election. This market will resolve to "New York" if the regularly-scheduled gubernatorial race in New York has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the California gubernatorial election. If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. In the event that a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 163 shares of New York.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long-Term-Slime-Capon | New York | 163 | $99 |
| Belated-Glue | California | 153 | $60 |
| Smug-Snowman | California | 10 | $4 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 06:04 AM ET | California | BUY | 35.0% | $35 |
| Oct 09, 02:57 AM ET | New York | BUY | 66.2% | $42 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET, the leading outcome is New York at 61.0%. Next is California at 39.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/closer-governor-race-california-or-new-york?via=bro
$163 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
New York, priced at 61.0% as of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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