As of October 24, 2026, 09:22 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Illinois at 70.0% in Closer Governor Race: Pennsylvania or Illinois? — $135 traded so far.
The leading outcome, Illinois, is priced at 70.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.5 pts; past week: +0.5 pts.
Since October 08, 2026, Illinois has traded between 43.5% and 73.0%. It opened at 51.5% and last traded at 73.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 72.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 65.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 71.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 70.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 72.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 70.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 73.0% |
Illinois is favored at 70.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | 70¢ | 70.0% | -1.5 pts | $135 | 100.0% |
| Pennsylvania | 30¢ | 30.0% | +1.5 pts | $135 | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 38¢ (bid 11¢ / ask 49¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$135 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Pennsylvania" if the regularly-scheduled gubernatorial race in Pennsylvania has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Illinois gubernatorial election. This market will resolve to "Illinois" if the regularly-scheduled gubernatorial race in Illinois has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Pennsylvania gubernatorial election. If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. In the event that a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 42 shares of Pennsylvania.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | Pennsylvania | 42 | $13 |
| Bumpy-Conscience | Illinois | 31 | $21 |
| Well-To-Do-Marketer-Equipment | Pennsylvania | 20 | $6 |
| Plump-Implementation | Illinois | 20 | $14 |
| Oddball-Poison | Illinois | 10 | $7 |
| These-Woodshed | Illinois | 2 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 07:22 AM ET | Pennsylvania | BUY | 39.0% | $4 |
| Oct 18, 09:01 PM ET | Illinois | BUY | 54.0% | $11 |
| Oct 17, 05:38 AM ET | Pennsylvania | SELL | 7.0% | $0 |
| Oct 16, 09:46 PM ET | Pennsylvania | BUY | 10.0% | $5 |
| Oct 16, 06:44 AM ET | Illinois | BUY | 49.0% | $10 |
| Oct 16, 06:44 AM ET | Illinois | BUY | 49.0% | $1 |
| Oct 16, 06:44 AM ET | Illinois | BUY | 49.0% | $15 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET, the leading outcome is Illinois at 70.0%. Next is Pennsylvania at 30.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/closer-governor-race-pennsylvania-or-illinois?via=bro
$135 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Illinois, priced at 70.0% as of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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