As of October 24, 2026, 09:11 PM ET, Polymarket traders price South Carolina at 71.0% in Closer Senate Race: Florida or South Carolina? — $962 traded so far.
The leading outcome, South Carolina, is priced at 71.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -11.5 pts.
Since September 28, 2026, South Carolina has traded between 51.5% and 71.5%. It opened at 66.5% and last traded at 71.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 59.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 59.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 59.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 71.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 70.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 71.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 71.5% |
South Carolina is favored at 71.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Carolina | 71¢ | 71.0% | — | $962 | 100.0% |
| Florida | 29¢ | 29.0% | — | $962 | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 26¢ (bid 16¢ / ask 42¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$962 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Florida" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Florida has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the South Carolina Senate election. This market will resolve to "South Carolina" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in South Carolina has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Florida Senate election. If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. In the event that a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 98 shares of Florida.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | Florida | 98 | $28 |
| Expensive-Arrow-Nightclub | South Carolina | 89 | $63 |
| Known-Use | Florida | 64 | $19 |
| United-Premier | South Carolina | 58 | $41 |
| Prickly-Eyrie | Florida | 51 | $15 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | South Carolina | 35 | $25 |
| Oddball-Poison | South Carolina | 24 | $17 |
| AnEggplant | South Carolina | 20 | $14 |
| Charming-Kidney-Imagination | Florida | 13 | $4 |
| Limp-Tshirt-Assignment | South Carolina | 5 | $4 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 07:03 AM ET | Florida | BUY | 31.0% | $3 |
| Oct 22, 05:18 AM ET | Florida | BUY | 31.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 05:17 AM ET | Florida | BUY | 31.0% | $3 |
| Oct 21, 07:23 PM ET | Florida | BUY | 31.0% | $4 |
| Oct 21, 07:23 PM ET | Florida | BUY | 30.0% | $4 |
| Oct 21, 01:03 PM ET | Florida | BUY | 31.0% | $3 |
| Oct 21, 09:59 AM ET | South Carolina | BUY | 63.0% | $10 |
| Oct 20, 05:44 PM ET | Florida | SELL | 17.0% | $0 |
| Oct 20, 04:06 PM ET | Florida | BUY | 39.0% | $2 |
| Oct 20, 04:06 PM ET | Florida | SELL | 37.0% | $7 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is South Carolina at 71.0%. Next is Florida at 29.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/closer-senate-race-florida-or-south-carolina?via=bro
$962 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
South Carolina, priced at 71.0% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.