As of October 24, 2026, 09:06 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Michigan at 77.5% in Closer Senate Race: Michigan or New Hampshire? — $1.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Michigan, is priced at 77.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: -2.5 pts.
Since September 28, 2026, Michigan has traded between 56.5% and 80.0%. It opened at 63.5% and last traded at 77.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 80.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 78.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 74.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 79.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 74.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 77.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 77.5% |
Michigan is favored at 77.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | 78¢ | 77.5% | +0.5 pts | $1.7K | 100.0% |
| New Hampshire | 22¢ | 22.5% | -0.5 pts | $1.7K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 76¢ / ask 79¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.7K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Michigan" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Michigan has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the New Hampshire Senate election. This market will resolve to "New Hampshire" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in New Hampshire has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Michigan Senate election. If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. In the event that a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 225 shares of Michigan.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Functional-Heartthrob | Michigan | 225 | $174 |
| Serpentine-Illusion | New Hampshire | 113 | $25 |
| Hopeful-Laboratory-Cricketer | Michigan | 107 | $83 |
| Belated-Glue | New Hampshire | 104 | $23 |
| Cultivated-Diesel | New Hampshire | 62 | $14 |
| Present-Knickers-Desire | New Hampshire | 21 | $5 |
| Charming-Kidney-Imagination | New Hampshire | 20 | $4 |
| Plump-Implementation | New Hampshire | 20 | $4 |
| Plastic-Duck | Michigan | 16 | $12 |
| Irresponsible-Chord-Hunter | New Hampshire | 8 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 01:47 PM ET | New Hampshire | SELL | 16.0% | $3 |
| Oct 21, 11:37 AM ET | New Hampshire | BUY | 24.0% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 11:24 AM ET | New Hampshire | BUY | 22.0% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 09:37 AM ET | Michigan | BUY | 84.0% | $50 |
| Oct 21, 09:36 AM ET | Michigan | BUY | 77.0% | $31 |
| Oct 21, 09:35 AM ET | Michigan | BUY | 77.0% | $6 |
| Oct 21, 09:35 AM ET | Michigan | BUY | 77.0% | $6 |
| Oct 19, 05:23 PM ET | New Hampshire | SELL | 23.0% | $12 |
| Oct 18, 05:49 AM ET | New Hampshire | SELL | 16.0% | $4 |
| Oct 16, 05:43 PM ET | New Hampshire | BUY | 21.1% | $4 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is Michigan at 77.5%. Next is New Hampshire at 22.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/closer-senate-race-michigan-or-new-hampshire?via=bro
$1.7K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Michigan, priced at 77.5% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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