As of October 24, 2026, 08:58 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Minnesota at 55.5% in Closer Senate Race: Minnesota or Mississippi? — $2.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Minnesota, is priced at 55.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +8.0 pts; past week: +3.0 pts.
Since September 28, 2026, Minnesota has traded between 43.5% and 79.5%. It opened at 55.0% and last traded at 55.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 43.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 47.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 44.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 49.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 47.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 47.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 55.5% |
Minnesota is favored at 55.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 56¢ | 55.5% | +8.0 pts | $2.6K | 100.0% |
| Mississippi | 44¢ | 44.5% | -8.0 pts | $2.6K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 21¢ (bid 45¢ / ask 66¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.6K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Minnesota" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Minnesota has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Mississippi Senate election. This market will resolve to "Mississippi" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Mississippi has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Minnesota Senate election. If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. In the event that a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 310 shares of Mississippi.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unselfish-Mineral-Sunday | Mississippi | 310 | $138 |
| Pure-Threat | Minnesota | 220 | $122 |
| Expensive-Arrow-Nightclub | Minnesota | 203 | $113 |
| Belated-Glue | Mississippi | 153 | $68 |
| Forthright-Forager | Minnesota | 119 | $66 |
| Gaseous-Tennis | Mississippi | 110 | $49 |
| Crazy-Stirfry | Minnesota | 70 | $39 |
| Piercing-Formation | Minnesota | 66 | $37 |
| Standard-Jackal | Mississippi | 46 | $20 |
| Frail-Prayer | Mississippi | 36 | $16 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 09:03 AM ET | Mississippi | SELL | 35.7% | $54 |
| Oct 21, 03:32 AM ET | Mississippi | SELL | 43.0% | $3 |
| Oct 21, 03:32 AM ET | Mississippi | BUY | 52.0% | $3 |
| Oct 21, 01:53 AM ET | Mississippi | BUY | 49.0% | $6 |
| Oct 19, 10:37 AM ET | Mississippi | SELL | 45.0% | $18 |
| Oct 19, 07:12 AM ET | Minnesota | BUY | 54.0% | $7 |
| Oct 19, 12:37 AM ET | Minnesota | BUY | 47.0% | $8 |
| Oct 19, 12:37 AM ET | Mississippi | BUY | 48.0% | $19 |
| Oct 18, 03:06 AM ET | Minnesota | BUY | 54.0% | $8 |
| Oct 18, 02:16 AM ET | Minnesota | SELL | 53.0% | $11 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is Minnesota at 55.5%. Next is Mississippi at 44.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/closer-senate-race-minnesota-or-mississippi?via=bro
$2.6K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Minnesota, priced at 55.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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