As of October 24, 2026, 06:37 PM ET, Polymarket traders price State K at 50.0% in Closest Senate Race? — $37.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, State K, is priced at 50.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.0 pts; past week: +0.0 pts; past month: +0.0 pts.
State K is favored at 50.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| State L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| State M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| State N | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| State O | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Iowa | 17¢ | 17.1% | +1.6 pts | $3.0K | 8.1% |
| Kansas | 15¢ | 15.4% | — | $7.8K | 20.9% |
| Texas | 13¢ | 13.0% | -0.6 pts | $3.5K | 9.2% |
| Maine | 10¢ | 9.7% | +0.3 pts | $1.8K | 4.8% |
| Alaska | 8¢ | 8.4% | -0.4 pts | $2.0K | 5.3% |
| Nebraska | 7¢ | 7.4% | +0.7 pts | $942 | 2.5% |
| Michigan | 7¢ | 7.0% | -0.1 pts | $1.6K | 4.4% |
| South Carolina | 6¢ | 5.7% | +1.1 pts | $2.6K | 6.9% |
| Ohio (Special) | 4¢ | 4.5% | -0.2 pts | $895 | 2.4% |
| Idaho | 4¢ | 4.0% | -1.8 pts | $776 | 2.1% |
| Florida (Special) | 3¢ | 3.4% | +0.1 pts | $1.7K | 4.7% |
| Minnesota | 3¢ | 3.1% | +0.6 pts | $1.1K | 3.0% |
| South Dakota | 3¢ | 3.0% | -1.5 pts | $629 | 1.7% |
| Louisiana | 3¢ | 3.0% | +1.3 pts | $789 | 2.1% |
| Mississippi | 2¢ | 2.2% | +0.1 pts | $1.4K | 3.8% |
| Montana | 2¢ | 2.1% | -0.1 pts | $498 | 1.3% |
| New Hampshire | 1¢ | 1.2% | — | $415 | 1.1% |
| Arkansas | 1¢ | 1.2% | — | $2.0K | 5.3% |
| Colorado | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $230 | 0.6% |
| New Mexico | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $230 | 0.6% |
| Georgia | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $230 | 0.6% |
| Virginia | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $224 | 0.6% |
| North Carolina | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $230 | 0.6% |
| Alabama | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $230 | 0.6% |
| Delaware | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $230 | 0.6% |
| Illinois | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $230 | 0.6% |
| Kentucky | 0¢ | 0.1% | -0.2 pts | $240 | 0.6% |
| Massachusetts | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $230 | 0.6% |
| New Jersey | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $230 | 0.6% |
| Oklahoma | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $230 | 0.6% |
| Oregon | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $230 | 0.6% |
| Rhode Island | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $230 | 0.6% |
| Tennessee | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $230 | 0.6% |
| West Virginia | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $230 | 0.6% |
| Wyoming | 0¢ | 0.1% | -0.2 pts | $220 | 0.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 100¢ (bid 0¢ / ask 100¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$37.4K has been traded on this event in total, $769 of it in the last 24 hours, across 40 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically. This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 922 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 922 | $461 |
| Prickly-Eyrie | Yes | 418 | $209 |
| Starry-Studio | Yes | 88 | $44 |
| Cloudy-Injustice | Yes | 86 | $43 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 80 | $40 |
| Smug-Snowman | Yes | 70 | $35 |
| Sparse-Cookie | Yes | 70 | $35 |
| Messy-Ritual-Hops | Yes | 29 | $15 |
| Victorious-Tape-Max | Yes | 26 | $13 |
| Grown-Fence | Yes | 26 | $13 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:39 PM ET | No | BUY | 87.2% | $42 |
| Oct 24, 05:39 PM ET | No | BUY | 87.0% | $87 |
| Oct 24, 05:39 PM ET | No | BUY | 87.0% | $85 |
| Oct 24, 08:56 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.6% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 07:24 PM ET | No | BUY | 87.0% | $220 |
| Oct 23, 07:24 PM ET | No | BUY | 87.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 01:03 AM ET | No | SELL | 82.6% | $14 |
| Oct 23, 01:03 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 16.3% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 03:36 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 16.0% | $33 |
| Oct 21, 07:11 AM ET | No | BUY | 85.3% | $938 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is State K at 50.0%. Next is State L at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/closest-senate-race?via=bro
$37.4K in total volume, with $769 traded in the last 24 hours across 40 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
State K, priced at 50.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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