As of October 24, 2026, 08:00 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Rosa María Bayardo Cabrera at 81.5% in Colima Governor Election Winner — $44.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Rosa María Bayardo Cabrera, is priced at 81.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +2.5 pts; past week: -1.5 pts.
Since August 05, 2026, Rosa María Bayardo Cabrera has traded between 14.0% and 87.0%. It opened at 37.5% and last traded at 81.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 82.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 83.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 83.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 83.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 79.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 81.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 81.5% |
Rosa María Bayardo Cabrera is favored at 81.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosa María Bayardo Cabrera | 82¢ | 81.5% | +2.5 pts | $26.1K | 58.4% |
| Candidate A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate N | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate O | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate P | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate Q | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate R | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate S | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate T | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate U | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate V | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate W | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate X | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate Y | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate Z | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Mely Romero Celis | 12¢ | 12.3% | -1.7 pts | $1.4K | 3.2% |
| Gabriela Benavides Cobos | 3¢ | 3.5% | -0.2 pts | $947 | 2.1% |
| Griselda Martínez Martínez | 3¢ | 3.0% | -0.8 pts | $1.4K | 3.1% |
| Mario Delgado Carrillo | 3¢ | 2.8% | -0.1 pts | $1.9K | 4.3% |
| Margarita Moreno González | 3¢ | 2.5% | +1.9 pts | $802 | 1.8% |
| Gricelda Valencia de la Mora | 2¢ | 2.4% | -0.1 pts | $1.3K | 2.8% |
| Riult Rivera Gutiérrez | 2¢ | 1.7% | -0.4 pts | $1.7K | 3.7% |
| Joel Padilla Peña | 1¢ | 1.3% | +0.4 pts | $717 | 1.6% |
| Viridiana Valencia Vargas | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $714 | 1.6% |
| Virgilio Mendoza Amezcua | 0¢ | 0.3% | — | $672 | 1.5% |
| Sofía Peralta Ferro | 0¢ | 0.3% | — | $684 | 1.5% |
| Julia Licet Jiménez Angulo | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $658 | 1.5% |
| María Cristina Lupien | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $721 | 1.6% |
| Leoncio Alfonso Morán Sánchez | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $646 | 1.4% |
| José Israel González | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $673 | 1.5% |
| César Yáñez Centeno | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $652 | 1.5% |
| Ana Karen Hernández Aceves | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $610 | 1.4% |
| José Manuel Romero Coello | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $626 | 1.4% |
| Enrique Rojas Orozco | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $634 | 1.4% |
| Esther Gutiérrez | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $669 | 1.5% |
| Hilda Lizette Moreno | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $528 | 1.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 79¢ / ask 84¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$44.6K has been traded on this event in total, $266 of it in the last 24 hours, across 49 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 06, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Colima on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Colima gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Colima and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Colima and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 6,680 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wan-Gymnastics | Yes | 6,680 | $5.4K |
| Quarterly-Compress | No | 5,969 | $1.1K |
| Belgaron | Yes | 920 | $750 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 636 | $118 |
| Turbulent-Decline-Router | No | 379 | $70 |
| Delayed-Vanadyl | No | 257 | $48 |
| Charming-Grape | No | 183 | $34 |
| 0xc24fa1e0… | Yes | 157 | $128 |
| Breakable-Simplification | No | 151 | $28 |
| Arctic-Kickoff | Yes | 138 | $113 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 01:58 AM ET | No | SELL | 16.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 11:58 PM ET | No | SELL | 16.0% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 11:58 PM ET | No | SELL | 16.0% | $18 |
| Oct 23, 11:58 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 80.0% | $7 |
| Oct 23, 11:58 PM ET | No | SELL | 20.0% | $22 |
| Oct 23, 09:28 AM ET | No | SELL | 24.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 02:29 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 74.0% | $18 |
| Oct 23, 12:46 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.3% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 11:44 PM ET | No | BUY | 28.1% | $21 |
| Oct 22, 11:44 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.3% | $74 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Rosa María Bayardo Cabrera at 81.5%. Next is Candidate A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/colima-governor-election-winner-20260803170329?via=bro
$44.6K in total volume, with $266 traded in the last 24 hours across 49 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 06, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Rosa María Bayardo Cabrera, priced at 81.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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