Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?

As of October 24, 2026, 09:01 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 61.0% in Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028? — $1.9K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
No
61%
A 61.0% price implies roughly a 61-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D −0.5 pts30D −5.5 pts
No61.0%
Yes39.0%
Bid
38¢
Ask
40¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 17, 2026: 55.5% – 87.0% · Opened at 58.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?
Category
AI, Tech, Congress, Politics, AI Safety, AI Regulation
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$1.9K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$22.9K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 61.0%
Resolution source
https://www.congress.gov/

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 61.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.5 pts; past month: -5.5 pts.

Since September 17, 2026, No has traded between 55.5% and 87.0%. It opened at 58.0% and last traded at 61.0%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202664.5%
Oct 16, 202661.0%
Oct 18, 202660.5%
Oct 19, 202660.5%
Oct 20, 202660.5%
Oct 24, 202661.0%
Oct 24, 202661.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 61.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No61¢61.0%—$1.9K100.0%
Yes39¢39.0%—$1.9K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 38¢ / ask 40¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$1.9K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation establishing a comprehensive federal framework for artificial intelligence becomes law in the United States between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Legislation establishes a comprehensive federal framework for artificial intelligence if its enacted text contains provisions in both of the following categories: (1) Standards or testing: the legislation directs a federal agency or body (for example, the National Institute of Standards and Technology) to develop, adopt, or maintain technical standards, benchmarks, testing frameworks, or evaluation capacity for artificial intelligence systems. (2) Transparency, disclosure, or risk management: the legislation requires transparency, disclosure, reporting, or risk-management practices for artificial intelligence systems, either as obligations on private-sector developers or deployers, or as guidelines or frameworks that a federal agency is directed to develop or adopt for use by federal agencies, whether mandatory or voluntary. Findings, sense-of-Congress language, and provisions that only authorize a study or require a one-time report to Congress will not satisfy this category. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://www.congress.gov/

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 175 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Impressive-LegendYes175$68
Big-RepairNo163$99
Belated-GlueYes112$44
Tangible-Exasperation-GritNo100$61
Modern-MaliceNo50$30
Gleaming-HandlebarYes35$14
Straight-WrinkleYes29$11
Known-UseNo20$12
Golden-PanpipeNo11$7
Skeletal-LiverNo11$7

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $95 at 63.0%SELL No — $95 at 62.8%BUY No — $63 at 63.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 22, 02:37 PM ETYesSELL38.0%$4
Oct 22, 02:37 PM ETNoBUY62.0%$6
Oct 20, 08:23 AM ETNoSELL60.0%$9
Oct 20, 08:23 AM ETYesBUY40.0%$6
Oct 20, 08:23 AM ETYesBUY40.0%$6
Oct 20, 08:23 AM ETNoSELL60.0%$9
Oct 16, 08:35 AM ETNoBUY60.0%$12
Oct 16, 08:35 AM ETNoSELL62.0%$12
Oct 16, 08:35 AM ETYesBUY38.0%$15
Oct 16, 08:35 AM ETYesBUY38.0%$8

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 61.0%. Next is Yes at 39.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/comprehensive-federal-ai-framework-becomes-us-law-before-2028?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028??

$1.9K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.congress.gov/.

What is the most likely outcome of Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 61.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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