As of October 24, 2026, 08:17 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 88.5% in Congress approves Iran deal in 2026? — $13.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 88.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.5 pts; past month: +4.5 pts.
Since June 16, 2026, No has traded between 48.0% and 93.0%. It opened at 49.0% and last traded at 88.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 88.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 89.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 87.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 88.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 89.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 88.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 88.5% |
No is favored at 88.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 88¢ | 88.5% | — | $13.2K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 12¢ | 11.5% | — | $13.2K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 9¢ (bid 7¢ / ask 16¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$13.2K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes" if the United States Congress passes a qualifying bill or resolution which, by its operative text, expresses approval regarding an agreement where the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States are both parties by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President. The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution source: https://congress.gov
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 750 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ordinary-Dress | Yes | 750 | $86 |
| Villainous-Crook | No | 600 | $531 |
| RepublicOfChina | No | 98 | $86 |
| Tiny-Equality | No | 67 | $59 |
| Fantastic-Refrigerator | No | 50 | $44 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 42 | $5 |
| Linear-Leaver | No | 34 | $31 |
| Quarrelsome-Enclave-Waste | Yes | 32 | $4 |
| Pointed-Wilderness | Yes | 18 | $2 |
| Constant-Snowplow | Yes | 18 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 03:34 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.0% | $1 |
| Oct 08, 05:23 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $0 |
| Oct 08, 05:23 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 17.0% | $1 |
| Oct 03, 07:24 PM ET | No | BUY | 84.0% | $7 |
| Oct 03, 06:47 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.0% | $1 |
| Sep 21, 01:58 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.0% | $1 |
| Sep 18, 05:14 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $1 |
| Sep 14, 12:08 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.0% | $1 |
| Sep 11, 12:00 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $2 |
| Sep 05, 09:26 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.5% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 88.5%. Next is Yes at 11.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/congress-approves-iran-deal-in-2026-20260616005217959?via=bro
$13.2K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://congress.gov.
No, priced at 88.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.