As of October 24, 2026, 08:15 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 at 52.5% in Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by…? — $16.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2027, is priced at 52.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +5.0 pts; past week: +10.5 pts; past month: +8.5 pts.
Since July 22, 2026, December 31, 2027 has traded between 27.0% and 54.5%. It opened at 46.5% and last traded at 52.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 42.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 42.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 43.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 45.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 44.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 47.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 52.5% |
December 31, 2027 is favored at 52.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 52¢ | 52.5% | +5.0 pts | $7.8K | 46.8% |
| December 31, 2026 | 27¢ | 27.0% | -1.0 pts | $8.9K | 53.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 45¢ (bid 30¢ / ask 75¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$16.6K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
HTSUS statistical line 8544.49.3040 targets insulated copper conductors, over 600V up to 1,000V, not fitted with connectors. This market will resolve to “Yes” if a legally operative Section 232 instrument subjects all articles under this line to a duty above 0%, a tariff-rate quota, an absolute quota, or another quantitative restriction by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, legally operative Section 232 instruments include but are not limited to: a presidential proclamation, a Commerce-USTR determination under that proclamation's clause 11 process, another Federal Register or chapter 99 action under Section 232 authority, or an Act of Congress. A qualifying instrument may name the line itself or any broader provision that fully includes it (e.g., tariff line 8544.49.30, subheading 8544.49, or heading 8544). If USITC renumbers the line, its successor will count the same way. A qualifying instrument must be enacted, signed, or otherwise put into legal operation by the specified date, regardless of whether the instrument stipulates a later date of enforcement. Tariff imposition will qualify regardless of whether there exist 0% in-quota rates, country carve-outs, metal-content thresholds, phased effective dates, or other conditions. Only tariffs imposed on HTSUS statistical line 8544.49.3040 will qualify. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 147 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flamboyant-Warming | No | 147 | $70 |
| Rare-Netball | Yes | 70 | $37 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 67 | $35 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 46 | $22 |
| Buttery-Race | Yes | 45 | $23 |
| Skeletal-Liver | No | 42 | $20 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 40 | $21 |
| Frail-Prayer | No | 37 | $18 |
| 0x4c6e4a8c… | Yes | 20 | $10 |
| 0xbadaf319… | Yes | 14 | $7 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 05:37 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 11.0% | $2 |
| Oct 12, 09:50 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 33.0% | $63 |
| Oct 12, 09:50 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 26.4% | $117 |
| Oct 08, 05:58 AM ET | No | BUY | 62.0% | $3 |
| Oct 07, 08:43 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 30.0% | $10 |
| Oct 07, 04:40 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 27.0% | $4 |
| Sep 30, 10:51 AM ET | No | BUY | 70.0% | $4 |
| Sep 30, 10:51 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 25.1% | $57 |
| Sep 30, 10:51 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 27.0% | $4 |
| Sep 21, 02:29 PM ET | No | SELL | 67.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2027 at 52.5%. Next is December 31, 2026 at 27.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/copper-cable-hit-with-secpt-232-tariffs-by-20260721191458000?via=bro
$16.6K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, 2027, priced at 52.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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