As of October 24, 2026, 06:35 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 3.1% at 46.0% in Core PCE YoY - September 2026 — $30.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 3.1%, is priced at 46.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: -2.5 pts.
Since October 01, 2026, 3.1% has traded between 13.5% and 59.5%. It opened at 13.5% and last traded at 46.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 48.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 53.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 59.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 49.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 38.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 46.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 46.0% |
3.1% is favored at 46.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.1% | 46¢ | 46.0% | +0.5 pts | $7.4K | 24.5% |
| 3.0% | 31¢ | 31.0% | +0.5 pts | $13.6K | 45.0% |
| 3.2% | 12¢ | 12.2% | -2.2 pts | $2.1K | 6.9% |
| 3.3%+ | 7¢ | 7.1% | -4.2 pts | $1.2K | 4.1% |
| ≤2.7% | 1¢ | 0.6% | -0.1 pts | $2.6K | 8.7% |
| 2.9% | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $2.7K | 9.0% |
| 2.8% | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $547 | 1.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 44¢ / ask 48¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$30.2K has been traded on this event in total, $590 of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 29, 2026, 09:30 AM ET.
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending September 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for September 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on October 29, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure (the PCE price index excluding food and energy), not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 733 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 733 | $396 |
| Unselfish-Mineral-Sunday | No | 501 | $270 |
| Buzzing-Profession | Yes | 235 | $108 |
| Attractive-Stamina | Yes | 225 | $104 |
| Few-Prevention | Yes | 203 | $93 |
| Pointless-Casket | Yes | 100 | $46 |
| Dental-Happiness | Yes | 100 | $46 |
| Sizzling-Incandescence | Yes | 82 | $38 |
| Lonely-Pronunciation-Jewellery | Yes | 74 | $34 |
| Bruised-Steppingstone | Yes | 60 | $28 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:44 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 30.0% | $25 |
| Oct 24, 10:29 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 32.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 10:29 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 32.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 10:27 AM ET | No | BUY | 70.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 10:27 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 31.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 10:25 AM ET | No | BUY | 70.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 10:18 AM ET | No | BUY | 70.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 10:18 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 32.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 10:17 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 32.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 10:16 AM ET | No | BUY | 70.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 3.1% at 46.0%. Next is 3.0% at 31.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/core-pce-yoy-september-2026?via=bro
$30.2K in total volume, with $590 traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 29, 2026, 09:30 AM ET.
3.1%, priced at 46.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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