Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Critical Discord Incident by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:13 PM ET, Polymarket traders price November 30 at 25.5% in Critical Discord Incident by...? — $20.2K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
November 30
26%
A 25.5% price implies roughly a 26-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −0.5 pts7D −9.0 pts
November 3025.5%
October 3111.5%
Bid
5¢
Ask
46¢
Spread
41¢
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Range since September 30, 2026: 25.5% – 69.5% · Opened at 51.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Critical Discord Incident by...?
Category
Tech, hack, outage, Culture, Business, Recurring
Scheduled end
September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$20.2K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$132
Markets
2
Leading outcome
November 30 — 25.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, November 30, is priced at 25.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: -9.0 pts.

Since September 30, 2026, November 30 has traded between 25.5% and 69.5%. It opened at 51.0% and last traded at 25.5%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202639.5%
Oct 16, 202632.5%
Oct 18, 202635.0%
Oct 19, 202631.0%
Oct 20, 202629.5%
Oct 24, 202625.5%
Oct 24, 202625.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

November 30 is favored at 25.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
November 3026¢25.5%-0.5 pts$8994.5%
October 3112¢11.5%+0.5 pts$2.1K10.4%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 41¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 46¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$20.2K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Discord experiences any incident classified as a 'Major Outage' (red) as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only incidents affecting Discord services or components will be considered. A 'Partial Outage' (orange) does not qualify. Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered. Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as a 'Major Outage' (red) when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first outage classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions that upgrade an incident’s outage classification to 'Major Outage' (red) will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 120 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Oddball-PoisonNo120$89
Direct-ChainstayYes51$13
Gleaming-HandlebarYes50$13
Straight-WrinkleYes19$5
Apt-AntecedentYes18$5
Self-Reliant-SceneryNo15$11
Infatuated-NunNo5$3
Rural-VisitYes2$0

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL Yes — $188 at 62.6%BUY No — $149 at 74.7%BUY Yes — $135 at 45.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 19, 04:49 PM ETNoSELL83.0%$0
Oct 19, 04:49 PM ETNoBUY93.0%$3
Oct 18, 11:34 AM ETYesSELL11.0%$4
Oct 18, 05:36 AM ETYesBUY17.0%$1
Oct 17, 09:09 AM ETNoBUY90.0%$2
Oct 17, 05:34 AM ETYesBUY18.0%$1
Oct 15, 09:23 PM ETNoSELL88.0%$18
Oct 15, 09:22 PM ETYesBUY13.0%$8
Oct 15, 08:23 AM ETNoBUY87.0%$1
Oct 15, 08:22 AM ETYesBUY14.0%$8

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Critical Discord Incident by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is November 30 at 25.5%. Next is October 31 at 11.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/critical-discord-incident-byptptpt-20260811190800464?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Critical Discord Incident by...??

$20.2K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Critical Discord Incident by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Critical Discord Incident by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

November 30, priced at 25.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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