As of October 24, 2026, 08:20 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 93.0% in D4vd released from custody in 2026? — $7.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 93.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -1.0 pts.
Since April 23, 2026, No has traded between 62.5% and 94.5%. It opened at 62.5% and last traded at 93.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 93.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 92.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 93.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 93.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 93.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 93.0% |
No is favored at 93.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 93¢ | 93.0% | — | $7.8K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 7¢ | 7.0% | — | $7.8K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 6¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 10¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$7.8K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if D4vd (a.k.a. David Anthony Burke) is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If D4vd is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If D4vd is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting D4vd to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 220 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blaring-Surge | No | 220 | $205 |
| 0xe3aeb10c… | Yes | 122 | $9 |
| Prickly-Signup | No | 107 | $100 |
| Snappy-Rooster | Yes | 95 | $7 |
| 0xc577f6fb… | Yes | 38 | $3 |
| Faraway-Seaside | Yes | 30 | $2 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 23 | $2 |
| Awkward-Reporting | Yes | 21 | $1 |
| Ashamed-Wok | Yes | 13 | $1 |
| Homely-Field | No | 8 | $7 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 05, 11:36 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.0% | $2 |
| Aug 05, 06:36 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.0% | $1 |
| Jul 22, 05:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $1 |
| Jul 22, 05:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 93.0% | $88 |
| Jul 18, 05:05 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.7% | $4 |
| Jul 08, 12:27 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $1 |
| Jun 26, 12:01 PM ET | No | BUY | 92.0% | $5 |
| Jun 25, 01:51 AM ET | No | BUY | 92.0% | $2 |
| May 30, 11:07 AM ET | No | SELL | 82.1% | $43 |
| May 20, 02:11 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.4% | $50 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 93.0%. Next is Yes at 7.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/d4vd-released-from-custody-in-2026?via=bro
$7.8K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 93.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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