As of October 24, 2026, 08:51 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 98.3% in Dario Amodei arrested by December 31? — $4.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 98.3%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.2 pts; past month: -1.7 pts.
Since July 02, 2026, No has traded between 94.5% and 98.4%. It opened at 94.5% and last traded at 98.3%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 97.9% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 98.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 96.4% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 98.3% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 98.3% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 98.4% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 98.3% |
No is favored at 98.3%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 98¢ | 98.3% | — | $4.7K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 2¢ | 1.7% | — | $4.7K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 2¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$4.7K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,220 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sleepy-Council | No | 1,220 | $1.2K |
| Grim-Cob | Yes | 521 | $9 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 300 | $5 |
| Happy-Dinosaur | No | 272 | $267 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 236 | $4 |
| Wiry-Walkway | Yes | 175 | $3 |
| Straight-Hunting | Yes | 166 | $3 |
| Flat-Badger | No | 75 | $74 |
| Angelic-Craw | Yes | 51 | $1 |
| Gummy-Yang | Yes | 45 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 10:43 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.7% | $2 |
| Oct 19, 08:27 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.1% | $2 |
| Oct 18, 07:00 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.3% | $0 |
| Oct 17, 09:19 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.4% | $0 |
| Oct 17, 06:55 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.8% | $20 |
| Oct 17, 06:55 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.5% | $58 |
| Oct 17, 10:02 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.0% | $384 |
| Oct 17, 06:30 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.0% | $294 |
| Oct 16, 04:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.0% | $294 |
| Oct 04, 04:08 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.4% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 98.3%. Next is Yes at 1.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/dario-amodei-arrested-by-december-31-20260702002059924?via=bro
$4.7K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 98.3% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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