Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Dario Amodei arrested by December 31?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:51 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 98.3% in Dario Amodei arrested by December 31? — $4.7K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
No
98%
A 98.3% price implies roughly a 98-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D −0.2 pts30D −1.7 pts
No98.3%
Yes1.7%
Bid
2¢
Ask
2¢
Spread
0¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since July 02, 2026: 94.5% – 98.4% · Opened at 94.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Dario Amodei arrested by December 31?
Category
AI, Tech, Culture, Politics, AI Regulation, Anthropic, AI Safety, Recurring
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$4.7K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$829
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 98.3%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 98.3%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.2 pts; past month: -1.7 pts.

Since July 02, 2026, No has traded between 94.5% and 98.4%. It opened at 94.5% and last traded at 98.3%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202697.9%
Oct 17, 202698.0%
Oct 18, 202696.4%
Oct 19, 202698.3%
Oct 20, 202698.3%
Oct 22, 202698.4%
Oct 23, 202698.3%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 98.3%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No98¢98.3%—$4.7K100.0%
Yes2¢1.7%—$4.7K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 2¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$4.7K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,220 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Sleepy-CouncilNo1,220$1.2K
Grim-CobYes521$9
Evil-RowYes300$5
Happy-DinosaurNo272$267
Belated-GlueYes236$4
Wiry-WalkwayYes175$3
Straight-HuntingYes166$3
Flat-BadgerNo75$74
Angelic-CrawYes51$1
Gummy-YangYes45$1

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $384 at 98.0%BUY No — $294 at 98.0%BUY No — $294 at 98.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 20, 10:43 AM ETYesBUY2.7%$2
Oct 19, 08:27 AM ETYesBUY2.1%$2
Oct 18, 07:00 AM ETYesBUY2.3%$0
Oct 17, 09:19 PM ETYesSELL1.4%$0
Oct 17, 06:55 PM ETNoBUY97.8%$20
Oct 17, 06:55 PM ETNoBUY94.5%$58
Oct 17, 10:02 AM ETNoBUY98.0%$384
Oct 17, 06:30 AM ETNoBUY98.0%$294
Oct 16, 04:31 PM ETNoBUY98.0%$294
Oct 04, 04:08 AM ETYesBUY4.4%$2

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Dario Amodei arrested by December 31??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 98.3%. Next is Yes at 1.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/dario-amodei-arrested-by-december-31-20260702002059924?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Dario Amodei arrested by December 31??

$4.7K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Dario Amodei arrested by December 31? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Dario Amodei arrested by December 31?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 98.3% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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