As of October 24, 2026, 09:16 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No IPO by December 31, 2027 at 44.1% in Databricks IPO Closing Market Cap — $416 traded so far.
The leading outcome, No IPO by December 31, 2027, is priced at 44.1%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +23.3 pts; past month: +23.6 pts.
Since July 01, 2026, No IPO by December 31, 2027 has traded between 19.0% and 64.5%. It opened at 45.5% and last traded at 44.1%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 20.7% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 20.6% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 20.8% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 20.1% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 45.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 45.4% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 44.1% |
No IPO by December 31, 2027 is favored at 44.1%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No IPO by December 31, 2027 | 44¢ | 44.1% | — | $272 | 65.4% |
| $150B-$200B | 44¢ | 44.0% | — | $18 | 4.3% |
| $250B-$300B | 44¢ | 44.0% | — | $18 | 4.3% |
| $300B-$350B | 44¢ | 44.0% | — | $18 | 4.3% |
| $350B-$400B | 44¢ | 44.0% | — | $18 | 4.3% |
| $400B-$450B | 44¢ | 44.0% | — | $18 | 4.3% |
| $450B+ | 44¢ | 44.0% | — | $18 | 4.3% |
| <$150B | 44¢ | 43.5% | — | $18 | 4.3% |
| $200B-$250B | 44¢ | 43.5% | — | $18 | 4.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 84¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 86¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$416 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 9 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve based on Databricks's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 18 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mortified-Wetland | Yes | 18 | $8 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 18 | $10 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 01, 02:24 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.0% | $0 |
| Aug 31, 10:31 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 40.1% | $40 |
| Aug 30, 03:17 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.0% | $0 |
| Aug 30, 03:17 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.0% | $0 |
| Aug 07, 05:25 AM ET | No | BUY | 17.0% | $3 |
| Aug 07, 05:09 AM ET | No | BUY | 19.0% | $19 |
| Jul 01, 08:16 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.0% | $52 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is No IPO by December 31, 2027 at 44.1%. Next is $150B-$200B at 44.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/databricks-ipo-closing-market-cap-20260630152322605?via=bro
$416 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 9 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
No IPO by December 31, 2027, priced at 44.1% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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