As of October 24, 2026, 08:17 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Michigan at 27.0% in Dems' best tossup Senate race? — $12.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Michigan, is priced at 27.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +4.5 pts; past month: -13.5 pts.
Since September 02, 2026, Michigan has traded between 22.5% and 57.0%. It opened at 51.0% and last traded at 27.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 31.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 32.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 22.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 29.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 33.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 27.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 27.0% |
Michigan is favored at 27.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | 27¢ | 27.0% | — | $5.7K | 44.1% |
| Ohio | 26¢ | 26.0% | -8.8 pts | $1.2K | 9.2% |
| Texas | 20¢ | 19.5% | -5.5 pts | $2.2K | 16.8% |
| Alaska | 11¢ | 10.6% | +7.6 pts | $1.2K | 9.6% |
| Maine | 8¢ | 8.5% | -4.0 pts | $2.1K | 16.4% |
| Iowa | 1¢ | 1.1% | — | $490 | 3.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 26¢ / ask 28¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$12.8K has been traded on this event in total, $275 of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election. Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share. If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order. In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 395 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 395 | $288 |
| Downright-Goddess | Yes | 160 | $43 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | Yes | 87 | $23 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 82 | $22 |
| Bumpy-Conscience | No | 77 | $56 |
| Unkempt-Mini | Yes | 70 | $19 |
| Oily-Notoriety | No | 57 | $42 |
| 0x6d6514eab960a4afa0ce9b6d2a60039dabc23781 | No | 50 | $36 |
| Dense-Whip | Yes | 39 | $11 |
| 0xd0d90cd5… | Yes | 30 | $8 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 08:04 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 08:04 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.0% | $28 |
| Oct 24, 08:04 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 08:04 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 08:39 AM ET | No | BUY | 71.0% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 08:36 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 07:35 AM ET | No | BUY | 81.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 07:35 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 19.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 12:30 AM ET | No | SELL | 76.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 12:30 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 18.0% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Michigan at 27.0%. Next is Ohio at 26.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/dems-best-tossup-senate-race?via=bro
$12.8K in total volume, with $275 traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.
Michigan, priced at 27.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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