Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Dems' best tossup Senate race?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:17 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Michigan at 27.0% in Dems' best tossup Senate race? — $12.8K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $275.
Leading outcome
Michigan
27%
A 27.0% price implies roughly a 27-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D +4.5 pts30D −13.5 pts
Michigan27.0%
Ohio 26.0%
Bid
26¢
Ask
28¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 02, 2026: 22.5% – 57.0% · Opened at 51.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Dems' best tossup Senate race?
Category
Senate, midterm, Politics, Josh Turek, US Election, Iowa Midterm, Maine Senate, Mary Peltola, Ohio Midterm, Troy Jackson, Texas Midterm, sherrod brown, Abdul El-Sayed, Alaska Midterm, James Talarico, Michigan Midterm, Margin of Victory
Scheduled end
November 03, 2026, 06:59 PM ET
Total volume
$12.8K
Volume (24h)
$275
Liquidity
$90.0K
Markets
6
Leading outcome
Michigan — 27.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Michigan, is priced at 27.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: +4.5 pts; past month: -13.5 pts.

Since September 02, 2026, Michigan has traded between 22.5% and 57.0%. It opened at 51.0% and last traded at 27.0%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202631.5%
Oct 16, 202632.5%
Oct 18, 202622.5%
Oct 19, 202629.5%
Oct 20, 202633.5%
Oct 23, 202627.0%
Oct 24, 202627.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Michigan is favored at 27.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Michigan27¢27.0%—$5.7K44.1%
Ohio 26¢26.0%-8.8 pts$1.2K9.2%
Texas20¢19.5%-5.5 pts$2.2K16.8%
Alaska11¢10.6%+7.6 pts$1.2K9.6%
Maine8¢8.5%-4.0 pts$2.1K16.4%
Iowa1¢1.1%—$4903.8%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 26¢ / ask 28¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$12.8K has been traded on this event in total, $275 of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election. Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share. If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order. In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 395 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No395$288
Downright-GoddessYes160$43
Gleaming-HandlebarYes87$23
Belated-GlueYes82$22
Bumpy-ConscienceNo77$56
Unkempt-MiniYes70$19
Oily-NotorietyNo57$42
0x6d6514eab960a4afa0ce9b6d2a60039dabc23781No50$36
Dense-WhipYes39$11
0xd0d90cd5…Yes30$8

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $40 at 66.0%BUY No — $34 at 69.0%BUY No — $33 at 82.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 08:04 PM ETYesBUY21.0%$4
Oct 24, 08:04 PM ETYesBUY21.0%$28
Oct 24, 08:04 PM ETYesBUY21.0%$4
Oct 24, 08:04 PM ETYesBUY21.0%$4
Oct 24, 08:39 AM ETNoBUY71.0%$14
Oct 24, 08:36 AM ETYesBUY21.0%$4
Oct 24, 07:35 AM ETNoBUY81.0%$4
Oct 24, 07:35 AM ETYesSELL19.0%$1
Oct 24, 12:30 AM ETNoSELL76.0%$0
Oct 24, 12:30 AM ETYesSELL18.0%$0

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Dems' best tossup Senate race??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Michigan at 27.0%. Next is Ohio at 26.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/dems-best-tossup-senate-race?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Dems' best tossup Senate race??

$12.8K in total volume, with $275 traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.

When does Dems' best tossup Senate race? end?

The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Dems' best tossup Senate race?, according to Polymarket traders?

Michigan, priced at 27.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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