Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

As of October 24, 2026, 07:45 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No change at 98.2% in ECB Interest Rates: October 2026 — $657.0K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $1.3K.
Leading outcome
No change
98%
A 98.2% price implies roughly a 98-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −0.4 pts7D +1.6 pts30D +39.6 pts
No change98.2%
25 bps increase1.5%
Bid
98¢
Ask
98¢
Spread
0¢
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Range since July 24, 2026: 47.0% – 98.6% · Opened at 53.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
Category
ECB, Euro, Europe, Economy, eurozone, Global Rates, interest rates, monetary policy, Macro Indicators, European Central Bank, Recurring
Scheduled end
October 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$657.0K
Volume (24h)
$1.3K
Liquidity
$58.3K
Markets
5
Leading outcome
No change — 98.2%
Resolution source
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No change, is priced at 98.2%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.4 pts; past week: +1.6 pts; past month: +39.6 pts.

Since July 24, 2026, No change has traded between 47.0% and 98.6%. It opened at 53.5% and last traded at 98.2%.

DayClose
Oct 17, 202696.5%
Oct 18, 202696.2%
Oct 19, 202696.4%
Oct 20, 202697.2%
Oct 22, 202696.9%
Oct 23, 202698.6%
Oct 24, 202698.2%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No change is favored at 98.2%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No change98¢98.2%-0.4 pts$282.0K42.9%
25 bps increase2¢1.5%-0.1 pts$212.0K32.3%
50+ bps decrease0¢0.1%—$36.0K5.5%
25 bps decrease0¢0.1%—$40.8K6.2%
50+ bps increase0¢0.1%—$86.2K13.1%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 98¢ / ask 98¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$657.0K has been traded on this event in total, $1.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 106,036 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No106,036$2.0K
Defensive-PlungerYes43,542$42.7K
Pretty-MotherYes25,513$25.0K
Detailed-FatherinlawYes13,212$13.0K
Respectful-ShareYes5,589$5.5K
Shallow-EponymYes5,098$5.0K
Attached-Example-AnesthesiologistYes5,000$4.9K
Blaring-SurgeYes4,795$4.7K
Vengeful-NetsukeYes4,385$4.3K
Whimsical-TerminalNo3,938$73

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $974 at 97.4%BUY No — $188 at 99.9%SELL Yes — $118 at 98.3%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 03:38 PM ETYesSELL98.1%$3
Oct 24, 01:04 PM ETYesSELL98.2%$118
Oct 24, 12:12 PM ETNoBUY1.9%$2
Oct 24, 12:12 PM ETNoBUY1.8%$0
Oct 24, 12:12 PM ETNoBUY1.8%$0
Oct 24, 12:12 PM ETYesBUY1.9%$5
Oct 24, 12:11 PM ETNoBUY1.8%$1
Oct 24, 12:11 PM ETNoBUY1.6%$0
Oct 24, 11:36 AM ETNoBUY1.6%$1
Oct 24, 06:28 AM ETNoBUY1.8%$0

Related markets

More ECB

ECB Interest Rates: December 2026

25 bps increase 75.5% · 24H VOL $15

Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of ECB Interest Rates: October 2026?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No change at 98.2%. Next is 25 bps increase at 1.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ecb-interest-rates-october-2026-20260723225848778?via=bro

How much money has been traded on ECB Interest Rates: October 2026?

$657.0K in total volume, with $1.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.

When does ECB Interest Rates: October 2026 end?

The market is scheduled to end October 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html.

What is the most likely outcome of ECB Interest Rates: October 2026, according to Polymarket traders?

No change, priced at 98.2% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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