As of October 24, 2026, 08:22 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Nuevas Ideas (NI) at 88.8% in El Salvador Legislative Election Winner — $5.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Nuevas Ideas (NI), is priced at 88.8%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -6.4 pts; past week: -6.3 pts.
Since October 02, 2026, Nuevas Ideas (NI) has traded between 85.5% and 97.9%. It opened at 85.5% and last traded at 95.2%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 94.9% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 95.2% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 95.2% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 95.2% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 94.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 96.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 95.2% |
Nuevas Ideas (NI) is favored at 88.8%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuevas Ideas (NI) | 89¢ | 88.8% | -6.4 pts | $1.9K | 32.8% |
| Party A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party N | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party O | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party P | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party Q | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party R | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party S | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party T | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party U | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party V | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party W | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party X | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party Y | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party Z | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| FMLN | 6¢ | 6.3% | +5.7 pts | $485 | 8.3% |
| GANA | 2¢ | 1.5% | — | $301 | 5.2% |
| Vamos | 1¢ | 1.5% | — | $503 | 8.6% |
| Salvadoran Democracy (DS) | 1¢ | 1.0% | — | $852 | 14.6% |
| PDC | 1¢ | 0.7% | — | $295 | 5.1% |
| FPS | 1¢ | 0.6% | — | $306 | 5.2% |
| PCN | 0¢ | 0.3% | +0.1 pts | $319 | 5.5% |
| ARENA | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $272 | 4.7% |
| PAIS | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $293 | 5.0% |
| Solidary Force (FS) | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $293 | 5.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 87¢ / ask 91¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$5.8K has been traded on this event in total, $199 of it in the last 24 hours, across 38 markets.
This market is scheduled to end February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Legislative elections to elect the 60 members of the Legislative Assembly of El Salvador are scheduled to take place on February 28, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Legislative Assembly of El Salvador as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by February 29, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats will be counted only where they are attributed to the specified party. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. Notwithstanding the above, if candidates from two or more parties run on the same list, each seat won by that list will be counted toward the party to which the elected candidate belongs. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.tse.gob.sv/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 698 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dull-Universe | Yes | 698 | $621 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 319 | $36 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 214 | $24 |
| Stale-Cashew | No | 105 | $12 |
| Grumpy-Invader | No | 53 | $6 |
| Grim-Garage | No | 51 | $6 |
| Arctic-Kickoff | Yes | 47 | $42 |
| Unselfish-Mineral-Sunday | Yes | 46 | $41 |
| Irresponsible-Chord-Hunter | No | 41 | $5 |
| Rowdy-Tenement | Yes | 30 | $27 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:15 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 90.4% | $17 |
| Oct 24, 03:58 PM ET | No | BUY | 9.5% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 09:35 PM ET | No | SELL | 1.8% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 07:13 AM ET | No | SELL | 5.5% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 05:16 AM ET | No | BUY | 6.1% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 01:46 AM ET | No | SELL | 1.8% | $0 |
| Oct 20, 06:31 PM ET | No | SELL | 5.9% | $2 |
| Oct 20, 02:17 PM ET | No | SELL | 2.0% | $0 |
| Oct 20, 02:10 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 94.5% | $19 |
| Oct 20, 02:10 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 94.5% | $19 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Nuevas Ideas (NI) at 88.8%. Next is Party A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/el-salvador-legislative-election-winner?via=bro
$5.8K in total volume, with $199 traded in the last 24 hours across 38 markets.
The market is scheduled to end February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.tse.gob.sv/.
Nuevas Ideas (NI), priced at 88.8% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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