As of October 24, 2026, 08:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Nayib Bukele at 95.5% in El Salvador Presidential Election Winner — $2.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Nayib Bukele, is priced at 95.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.2 pts; past week: -1.6 pts.
Since October 01, 2026, Nayib Bukele has traded between 95.5% and 98.0%. It opened at 96.4% and last traded at 95.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 97.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 97.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 97.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 97.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 95.7% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 95.5% |
Nayib Bukele is favored at 95.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nayib Bukele | 95¢ | 95.5% | -0.2 pts | $1.4K | 47.7% |
| Person A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person N | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person O | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person P | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person Q | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person R | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person S | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person T | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person U | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person V | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person W | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person X | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person Y | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person Z | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Mayteé Iraheta | 4¢ | 3.6% | +2.5 pts | $362 | 12.5% |
| Orlando del Cid | 3¢ | 3.5% | -0.1 pts | $323 | 11.2% |
| Rafael Aguirre | 1¢ | 0.9% | — | $272 | 9.4% |
| Alirio García Flamenco | 1¢ | 0.7% | — | $557 | 19.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 93¢ / ask 98¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.9K has been traded on this event in total, $20 of it in the last 24 hours, across 32 markets.
This market is scheduled to end February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in El Salvador on February 28, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Salvadoran presidential election. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by February 29, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal of El Salvador (https://www.tse.gob.sv/).
Resolution source: https://www.tse.gob.sv/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 771 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Verifiable-Obstacle | Yes | 771 | $736 |
| Blond-Wriggler | No | 500 | $23 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 252 | $11 |
| Grand-Payee | Yes | 150 | $143 |
| Unselfish-Mineral-Sunday | Yes | 92 | $88 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 86 | $4 |
| Stale-Cashew | No | 73 | $3 |
| Second-Fabric | No | 56 | $3 |
| 0x55332464… | No | 21 | $1 |
| Charming-Kidney-Imagination | No | 20 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 09:13 AM ET | No | SELL | 98.8% | $15 |
| Oct 22, 02:26 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 97.9% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 02:20 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.2% | $29 |
| Oct 22, 02:20 AM ET | No | BUY | 3.9% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 02:20 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $31 |
| Oct 21, 07:47 PM ET | No | SELL | 92.8% | $7 |
| Oct 21, 07:39 PM ET | No | SELL | 93.1% | $7 |
| Oct 21, 07:02 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.1% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 07:02 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.5% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is Nayib Bukele at 95.5%. Next is Person A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/el-salvador-presidential-election-winner-2027?via=bro
$2.9K in total volume, with $20 traded in the last 24 hours across 32 markets.
The market is scheduled to end February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.tse.gob.sv/.
Nayib Bukele, priced at 95.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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