As of October 24, 2026, 08:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 89.5% in Elder Scrolls VI released by December 31? — $3.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 89.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +5.0 pts; past week: +4.7 pts; past month: +6.6 pts.
Since March 18, 2026, No has traded between 50.0% and 98.9%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 94.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 89.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 88.8% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 94.2% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 94.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 94.3% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 94.5% |
No is favored at 89.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 90¢ | 89.5% | -5.0 pts | $3.7K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 10¢ | 10.5% | +5.0 pts | $3.7K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 18¢ (bid 1¢ / ask 20¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.7K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elder Scrolls VI is officially released in the US by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source will be official information from Bethesda Softworks or its parent company, Microsoft.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 972 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Obedient-Commuter | No | 972 | $870 |
| Normal-Mariachi | Yes | 595 | $63 |
| Outlandish-Complicity | No | 143 | $128 |
| Ordinary-Confectionery | No | 128 | $114 |
| Gummy-Theater | No | 105 | $94 |
| Stale-Cashew | Yes | 100 | $10 |
| Obedient-Population | Yes | 100 | $10 |
| Double-Valley | Yes | 100 | $10 |
| Fruitful-Heroine | Yes | 88 | $9 |
| Bouncy-Saving | Yes | 75 | $8 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 10:34 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.5% | $135 |
| Sep 15, 04:35 AM ET | No | SELL | 91.3% | $86 |
| Aug 29, 03:02 PM ET | No | SELL | 96.7% | $48 |
| Aug 12, 07:01 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.1% | $7 |
| Aug 09, 06:11 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.1% | $5 |
| Aug 08, 08:58 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.9% | $0 |
| Aug 06, 10:46 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.7% | $56 |
| Aug 06, 10:46 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.6% | $39 |
| Aug 04, 12:54 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.0% | $1 |
| Jul 09, 01:03 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.8% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 89.5%. Next is Yes at 10.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/elder-scrolls-vi-released-by-december-31?via=bro
$3.7K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 89.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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