As of October 24, 2026, 06:55 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 240-259 at 14.5% in Elon Musk # tweets October 27 - November 3, 2026? — $30.1K traded so far.
240-259 is favored at 14.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 240-259 | 14¢ | 14.5% | — | $1.6K | 5.3% |
| 260-279 | 14¢ | 13.5% | — | $2.6K | 8.6% |
| 280-299 | 12¢ | 12.5% | — | $2.4K | 7.9% |
| 300-319 | 10¢ | 10.5% | — | $2.1K | 7.0% |
| 220-239 | 9¢ | 9.0% | — | $1.7K | 5.6% |
| 320-339 | 8¢ | 8.4% | — | $1.2K | 4.1% |
| 200-219 | 6¢ | 6.5% | — | $1.8K | 6.1% |
| 340-359 | 6¢ | 5.8% | — | $1.2K | 4.1% |
| 180-199 | 4¢ | 4.5% | — | $1.3K | 4.2% |
| 360-379 | 4¢ | 3.7% | — | $524 | 1.7% |
| 380-399 | 2¢ | 2.2% | — | $605 | 2.0% |
| 400-419 | 2¢ | 1.8% | — | $465 | 1.5% |
| 420-439 | 1¢ | 1.4% | — | $684 | 2.3% |
| 440-459 | 1¢ | 1.2% | — | $805 | 2.7% |
| 160-179 | 1¢ | 1.2% | — | $264 | 0.9% |
| 500-519 | 1¢ | 1.0% | — | $2.0K | 6.5% |
| 460-479 | 1¢ | 0.8% | — | $350 | 1.2% |
| 480-499 | 1¢ | 0.7% | — | $350 | 1.2% |
| 100-119 | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $1.3K | 4.3% |
| 140-159 | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $510 | 1.7% |
| 580+ | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $1.9K | 6.4% |
| 520-539 | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $354 | 1.2% |
| 540-559 | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $529 | 1.8% |
| 560-579 | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $572 | 1.9% |
| 120-139 | 0¢ | 0.3% | — | $459 | 1.5% |
| 80-99 | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $2.0K | 6.6% |
| <20 | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $100 | 0.3% |
| 20-39 | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $100 | 0.3% |
| 40-59 | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $100 | 0.3% |
| 60-79 | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $290 | 1.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 14¢ / ask 15¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$30.1K has been traded on this event in total, $30.1K of it in the last 24 hours, across 30 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 27 12:00 PM ET to November 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution source: https://x.com/elonmusk
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,454 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 2,454 | $2.1K |
| Reliable-Developmental | Yes | 1,350 | $196 |
| Livid-Cicada | Yes | 693 | $100 |
| Impure-Lode | Yes | 391 | $57 |
| Knowing-Dot | No | 364 | $311 |
| Careful-Bunch | Yes | 272 | $39 |
| Weird-Nylon | No | 100 | $86 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 98 | $14 |
| Rowdy-Tenement | Yes | 60 | $9 |
| Classic-Farm | Yes | 50 | $7 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:01 PM ET | No | BUY | 89.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 04:51 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 04:30 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 04:19 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 04:18 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 12.0% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 03:26 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.0% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 11:58 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.9% | $30 |
| Oct 24, 11:34 AM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $235 |
| Oct 24, 11:34 AM ET | No | BUY | 91.0% | $56 |
| Oct 24, 11:33 AM ET | No | BUY | 86.0% | $531 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is 240-259 at 14.5%. Next is 260-279 at 13.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-october-27-november-3-2026?via=bro
$30.1K in total volume, with $30.1K traded in the last 24 hours across 30 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://x.com/elonmusk.
240-259, priced at 14.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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