As of October 24, 2026, 07:58 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 99.4% in Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? — $50.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 99.4%.
Price changes for the leading market — past month: -0.8 pts.
Since February 10, 2026, No has traded between 93.3% and 99.4%. It opened at 96.0% and last traded at 99.4%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 99.4% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 99.4% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 99.3% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 99.4% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 99.4% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 99.4% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 99.4% |
No is favored at 99.4%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 99¢ | 99.4% | — | $50.3K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 1¢ | 0.7% | — | $50.3K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 0¢ / ask 1¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$50.3K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if definitive evidence confirming that Jeffrey Epstein is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to, verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence. If Satoshi Nakamoto is conclusively identified as a group or collective rather than a single individual, definitive evidence that Jeffrey Epstein was a member of that group will qualify. Unverified or anonymous claims, speculation, memes, jokes, sarcasm, or unsubstantiated reports will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,107 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Odd-Street | No | 3,107 | $3.1K |
| Zealous-Dogwood | Yes | 2,898 | $19 |
| Sure-Footed-Webpage | Yes | 1,762 | $11 |
| Upset-Stack | Yes | 1,068 | $7 |
| Aggressive-Polenta | No | 1,015 | $1.0K |
| Glittering-Laparoscope | No | 862 | $856 |
| Nice-Text | Yes | 736 | $5 |
| Artistic-Anime | No | 700 | $695 |
| 0x8931aa50… | No | 583 | $579 |
| Big-Beet | Yes | 405 | $3 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 03:59 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.6% | $0 |
| Oct 05, 12:32 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.2% | $5 |
| Oct 05, 12:18 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 0.8% | $1 |
| Oct 05, 12:18 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.2% | $144 |
| Oct 05, 12:17 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.1% | $100 |
| Oct 05, 04:03 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.0% | $1 |
| Oct 04, 04:24 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.0% | $0 |
| Oct 03, 07:19 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.3% | $1 |
| Sep 30, 06:33 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.2% | $1 |
| Sep 27, 11:45 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.0% | $198 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 99.4%. Next is Yes at 0.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/epstein-confirmed-to-be-satoshi-by-december-31?via=bro
$50.3K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 99.4% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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