As of October 24, 2026, 07:45 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 at 20.5% in Erdoğan out by...? — $650.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2027, is priced at 20.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -9.5 pts; past week: +4.5 pts.
Since October 02, 2026, December 31, 2027 has traded between 15.5% and 50.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 20.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 15.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 16.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 16.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 30.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 30.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 30.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 20.5% |
December 31, 2027 is favored at 20.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 20¢ | 20.5% | -9.5 pts | $234 | 0.0% |
| December 31, 2026 | 4¢ | 3.8% | +0.1 pts | $650.5K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 17¢ (bid 12¢ / ask 29¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$650.7K has been traded on this event in total, $35 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 06:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 156 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turbulent-Nation | No | 156 | $124 |
| Finished-Wheel | Yes | 82 | $17 |
| Selfish-Altar | Yes | 43 | $9 |
| Coordinated-Piccolo-Badge | Yes | 25 | $5 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 7 | $1 |
| All-Confidence | No | 6 | $4 |
| Tasty-Particle | Yes | 5 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:14 AM ET | No | SELL | 96.1% | $33 |
| Oct 23, 03:39 PM ET | No | SELL | 96.1% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 11:22 AM ET | No | SELL | 96.1% | $10 |
| Oct 22, 08:00 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 30.0% | $8 |
| Oct 22, 07:59 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 29.7% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 08:46 AM ET | No | BUY | 88.4% | $35 |
| Oct 21, 10:46 PM ET | No | SELL | 96.1% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 10:45 PM ET | No | SELL | 96.2% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 10:44 PM ET | No | SELL | 96.2% | $3 |
| Oct 21, 10:43 PM ET | No | SELL | 96.2% | $4 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2027 at 20.5%. Next is December 31, 2026 at 3.8%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/erdoan-out-before-2027?via=bro
$650.7K in total volume, with $35 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 06:59 PM ET.
December 31, 2027, priced at 20.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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