As of October 24, 2026, 07:51 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 14.5% in Eritrea invades Ethiopia by...? — $115.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 14.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.0 pts; past week: +4.0 pts.
Since September 28, 2026, December 31 has traded between 10.5% and 62.5%. It opened at 22.0% and last traded at 14.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 10.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 10.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 15.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 16.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 17.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 15.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 14.5% |
December 31 is favored at 14.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 14¢ | 14.5% | -1.0 pts | $59.8K | 51.9% |
| October 31 | 4¢ | 4.3% | — | $55.5K | 48.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 14¢ / ask 15¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$115.3K has been traded on this event in total, $217 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eritrean military forces enter Ethiopia by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET in a military operation that establishes control over any portion of Ethiopian territory. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any Eritrean military operation which remains on the ground inside the territory of Ethiopia for less than 48 hours will not qualify. Mere presence of Eritrean military forces within Ethiopia will not alone qualify, even if for longer than 48 hours. A consensus of credible reporting must demonstrate that such presence is or was part of a military operation which established control over a portion of Ethiopia. Only the entry of Eritrean military forces into the territory of Ethiopia must occur by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Where Eritrean military forces enter the territory of Ethiopia by the listed date, but on the listed date, at 11:59 PM ET, control has not yet been confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting, this market will remain open for 7 additional full calendar days (ET) to allow for confirmation. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,389 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp-Astrakhan | No | 1,389 | $1.2K |
| Tough-Garter | Yes | 767 | $111 |
| Hideous-Racer | No | 675 | $577 |
| True-Parallelogram | No | 467 | $399 |
| Unfinished-Guest | Yes | 413 | $60 |
| Circular-Sandpaper-Larder | No | 400 | $342 |
| NoSteinNoGate | Yes | 366 | $53 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 223 | $32 |
| Idle-Soldier | Yes | 200 | $29 |
| Unusual-Skull | Yes | 182 | $26 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 09:08 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.4% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 09:08 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.4% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 09:08 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.4% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 09:07 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.4% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 06:12 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.7% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 01:31 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 15.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 10:29 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 15.0% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 05:57 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 15.0% | $11 |
| Oct 23, 01:00 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.3% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 10:33 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.3% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 14.5%. Next is October 31 at 4.3%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/eritrea-invades-ethiopia-byptptpt?via=bro
$115.3K in total volume, with $217 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 14.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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