As of October 24, 2026, 07:58 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Lorenzo Pazolini at 89.5% in Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner — $55.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Lorenzo Pazolini, is priced at 89.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -5.9 pts; past week: -7.9 pts; past month: +39.0 pts.
Since June 12, 2026, Lorenzo Pazolini has traded between 8.5% and 97.2%. It opened at 25.0% and last traded at 95.4%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | 94.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 93.8% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 94.7% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 96.2% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 97.2% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 95.4% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 95.4% |
Lorenzo Pazolini is favored at 89.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorenzo Pazolini | 89¢ | 89.5% | -5.9 pts | $22.4K | 40.6% |
| Candidate A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ricardo Ferraço | 10¢ | 9.9% | +6.3 pts | $21.0K | 37.9% |
| Sergio Vidigal | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $3.6K | 6.5% |
| Arnaldinho Borgo | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $4.9K | 8.8% |
| Euclério Sampaio | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $3.4K | 6.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 88¢ / ask 91¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$55.2K has been traded on this event in total, $2.1K of it in the last 24 hours, across 16 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Resolution source: https://www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 5,722 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 5,722 | $604 |
| Studious-Willingness | Yes | 2,135 | $1.9K |
| Insubstantial-Coffee | Yes | 1,790 | $1.6K |
| Humongous-Bookend | Yes | 555 | $497 |
| Incomparable-Snakebite-Mathematics | Yes | 541 | $484 |
| Velvety-Burn | No | 530 | $56 |
| Dead-Lava | Yes | 504 | $451 |
| Dual-Cephalopod | No | 431 | $45 |
| Thrifty-Shadow-Lamp | Yes | 408 | $365 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 286 | $30 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:15 PM ET | No | BUY | 11.5% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 06:15 PM ET | No | BUY | 11.5% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 06:15 PM ET | No | BUY | 10.3% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 06:15 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.9% | $46 |
| Oct 24, 05:17 PM ET | No | BUY | 9.4% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 05:17 PM ET | No | BUY | 9.9% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 05:17 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.9% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 05:17 PM ET | No | BUY | 9.9% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 05:17 PM ET | No | BUY | 8.5% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 05:17 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.9% | $75 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Lorenzo Pazolini at 89.5%. Next is Candidate A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/espirito-santo-governor-election-winner-20260611183840001?via=bro
$55.2K in total volume, with $2.1K traded in the last 24 hours across 16 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes.
Lorenzo Pazolini, priced at 89.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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