As of October 24, 2026, 07:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price $25M at 41.5% in Ethereal FDV above ___ one day after launch? — $80.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, $25M, is priced at 41.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -3.0 pts; past week: -4.0 pts; past month: -0.5 pts.
Since May 26, 2026, $25M has traded between 35.0% and 87.5%. It opened at 48.5% and last traded at 44.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 51.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 50.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 47.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 44.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 43.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 46.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 44.5% |
$25M is favored at 41.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $25M | 42¢ | 41.5% | -3.0 pts | $35.3K | 43.7% |
| $50M | 34¢ | 34.0% | -2.0 pts | $12.9K | 16.0% |
| $100M | 20¢ | 19.5% | -1.0 pts | $6.4K | 7.9% |
| $200M | 20¢ | 19.5% | -1.0 pts | $2.6K | 3.3% |
| $300M | 16¢ | 16.5% | +1.5 pts | $1.5K | 1.8% |
| $400M | 14¢ | 14.5% | +0.5 pts | $2.6K | 3.2% |
| $500M | 12¢ | 11.6% | -0.4 pts | $9.9K | 12.2% |
| $800M | 6¢ | 5.7% | +0.1 pts | $2.3K | 2.9% |
| $600M | 5¢ | 5.1% | +0.4 pts | $751 | 0.9% |
| $1B | 4¢ | 3.5% | — | $2.6K | 3.2% |
| $2B | 3¢ | 2.9% | +0.4 pts | $3.9K | 4.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 40¢ / ask 43¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$80.7K has been traded on this event in total, $201 of it in the last 24 hours, across 11 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 01, 2028, 12:00 AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethereal's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution source: https://x.com/etherealdex
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 396 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Humming-Inventory | Yes | 396 | $165 |
| Evil-Row | No | 337 | $197 |
| Fruitful-Ectoderm | No | 279 | $163 |
| Neat-Cravat | Yes | 210 | $87 |
| Verifiable-Obstacle | No | 164 | $96 |
| Lavish-Schooner | Yes | 159 | $66 |
| Arid-Cinema | Yes | 100 | $42 |
| Watery-Forehead | No | 90 | $52 |
| Smart-Tuxedo | Yes | 82 | $34 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 55 | $23 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:22 PM ET | No | SELL | 86.2% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 03:22 PM ET | No | SELL | 87.9% | $16 |
| Oct 23, 07:12 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 33.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 06:31 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 27.0% | $8 |
| Oct 23, 06:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 67.0% | $40 |
| Oct 23, 05:16 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 41.0% | $12 |
| Oct 23, 01:36 PM ET | No | BUY | 63.0% | $19 |
| Oct 23, 01:36 PM ET | No | BUY | 64.0% | $19 |
| Oct 23, 01:25 AM ET | No | BUY | 55.0% | $16 |
| Oct 22, 11:34 PM ET | No | BUY | 86.3% | $134 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is $25M at 41.5%. Next is $50M at 34.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ethereal-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-774?via=bro
$80.7K in total volume, with $201 traded in the last 24 hours across 11 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 01, 2028, 12:00 AM ET. It resolves based on https://x.com/etherealdex.
$25M, priced at 41.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
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