As of October 24, 2026, 08:20 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 83.5% in EU country expels Russian ambassador by December 31? — $7.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 83.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -3.5 pts; past month: +1.0 pts.
Since September 19, 2026, No has traded between 66.5% and 85.5%. It opened at 85.5% and last traded at 83.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 79.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 80.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 81.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 80.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 82.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 83.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 83.5% |
No is favored at 83.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 84¢ | 83.5% | — | $7.7K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 16¢ | 16.5% | — | $7.7K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 16¢ / ask 17¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$7.7K has been traded on this event in total, $20 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Russian ambassador is expelled from any European Union member state by the government of that state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by an EU member state requiring the Russian Ambassador to leave that state, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to the relevant state will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the expelling country and Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 885 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sociable-Rooster | Yes | 885 | $146 |
| Raw-Steam | No | 676 | $564 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 523 | $86 |
| Immaterial-Stalk | No | 473 | $395 |
| baybug | No | 420 | $351 |
| Bitter-Cartoon | No | 400 | $334 |
| Modest-Wholesale | Yes | 221 | $36 |
| Actual-Reply | Yes | 200 | $33 |
| Wobbly-Chain | No | 200 | $167 |
| Traumatic-Bakery | Yes | 198 | $33 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:17 PM ET | No | BUY | 84.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 02:17 PM ET | No | BUY | 84.0% | $11 |
| Oct 23, 11:46 AM ET | No | BUY | 81.0% | $16 |
| Oct 23, 11:46 AM ET | No | BUY | 78.0% | $47 |
| Oct 23, 04:07 AM ET | No | SELL | 77.0% | $15 |
| Oct 23, 03:59 AM ET | No | SELL | 76.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 03:59 AM ET | No | SELL | 80.4% | $25 |
| Oct 23, 03:59 AM ET | No | SELL | 81.0% | $16 |
| Oct 23, 03:59 AM ET | No | SELL | 81.0% | $32 |
| Oct 23, 03:59 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 18.0% | $18 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 83.5%. Next is Yes at 16.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/eu-country-expels-russian-ambassador-by-december-31?via=bro
$7.7K in total volume, with $20 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 83.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.