As of October 24, 2026, 09:06 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 86.0% in EU debt downgrade before 2027? — $1.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 86.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: -10.5 pts; past month: -8.5 pts.
Since January 07, 2026, No has traded between 21.0% and 91.0%. It opened at 49.5% and last traded at 86.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 77.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 79.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 82.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 84.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 86.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 84.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 86.0% |
No is favored at 86.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 86¢ | 86.0% | -0.5 pts | $1.6K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 14¢ | 14.0% | +0.5 pts | $1.6K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 14¢ (bid 7¢ / ask 21¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.6K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 166 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grown-Billion | No | 166 | $143 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 165 | $23 |
| 0xf203decc… | Yes | 85 | $12 |
| Handy-Emitter | Yes | 60 | $8 |
| Joint-Partner | No | 58 | $50 |
| Peppery-Headlight | Yes | 46 | $6 |
| Worse-Haven | No | 37 | $32 |
| Tricky-Usher | No | 35 | $30 |
| Decimal-Anesthesiology | No | 24 | $21 |
| These-Blouse | No | 18 | $15 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 03:07 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 17.0% | $1 |
| Oct 13, 01:26 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $5 |
| Oct 12, 02:02 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $1 |
| Oct 07, 03:55 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 14.0% | $0 |
| Oct 06, 09:13 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 20.0% | $9 |
| Oct 06, 05:41 PM ET | No | BUY | 92.0% | $5 |
| Oct 06, 05:41 PM ET | No | BUY | 85.8% | $10 |
| Oct 05, 01:43 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 15.0% | $4 |
| Oct 04, 04:27 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.0% | $3 |
| Oct 01, 06:19 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 86.0%. Next is Yes at 14.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/eu-debt-downgrade-before-2027?via=bro
$1.6K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 86.0% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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