As of October 24, 2026, 07:48 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 98.3% in EU dissolves before 2027? — $185.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 98.3%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.1 pts; past month: +0.2 pts.
Since December 07, 2025, No has traded between 90.0% and 99.3%. It opened at 90.0% and last traded at 98.3%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 98.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 98.4% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 98.3% |
No is favored at 98.3%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 98¢ | 98.3% | — | $185.5K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 2¢ | 1.7% | — | $185.5K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 2¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$185.5K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met: 1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU. 2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. 3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity. EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 4,035 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sophisticated-Cot | Yes | 4,035 | $69 |
| Compassionate-Kneejerk | No | 3,156 | $3.1K |
| Snarling-Veil | No | 1,524 | $1.5K |
| Hideous-Anticipation | Yes | 1,400 | $24 |
| Weekly-Lot | Yes | 1,278 | $22 |
| Ill-Fated-Shorts | No | 1,157 | $1.1K |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 823 | $14 |
| Alert-Fob | Yes | 730 | $12 |
| 0x6b0ebbef… | Yes | 714 | $12 |
| Glittering-Laparoscope | No | 679 | $668 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 06:29 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.7% | $2 |
| Oct 20, 06:28 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.8% | $2 |
| Oct 16, 01:45 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.2% | $28 |
| Oct 16, 11:27 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.8% | $5 |
| Oct 16, 11:15 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.8% | $5 |
| Oct 16, 11:14 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.8% | $5 |
| Oct 16, 11:13 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.7% | $18 |
| Oct 16, 11:13 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.9% | $50 |
| Oct 16, 11:13 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.0% | $1 |
| Oct 16, 05:07 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.2% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 98.3%. Next is Yes at 1.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/eu-dissolves-before-2027?via=bro
$185.5K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 98.3% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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