Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:00 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 30M+ at 76.5% in EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026? — $43.6K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $44.
Leading outcome
30M+
76%
A 76.5% price implies roughly a 76-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +1.0 pts7D −9.0 pts
30M+76.5%
31M+74.0%
Bid
74¢
Ask
79¢
Spread
5¢
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Range since October 02, 2026: 75.5% – 85.5% · Opened at 84.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026?
Category
Oil, Iran, Europe, France, diesel, Economy, Germany, petroleum, European Union
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$43.6K
Volume (24h)
$44
Liquidity
$4.2K
Markets
8
Leading outcome
30M+ — 76.5%
Resolution source
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/nrg_stk_oilm__custom_22993801/default/table

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, 30M+, is priced at 76.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.0 pts; past week: -9.0 pts.

Since October 02, 2026, 30M+ has traded between 75.5% and 85.5%. It opened at 84.5% and last traded at 76.5%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202685.5%
Oct 18, 202685.5%
Oct 19, 202684.5%
Oct 20, 202684.5%
Oct 22, 202685.0%
Oct 23, 202675.5%
Oct 24, 202676.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

30M+ is favored at 76.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
30M+76¢76.5%+1.0 pts$6.6K15.1%
31M+74¢74.0%—$4.7K10.8%
32M+68¢67.5%+1.0 pts$4.4K10.0%
33M+44¢44.5%-1.0 pts$6.6K15.2%
34M+32¢32.5%-5.5 pts$6.5K14.8%
35M+6¢6.5%+0.5 pts$10.1K23.1%
36M+6¢5.5%—$1.6K3.6%
37M+2¢2.0%—$3.2K7.3%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 74¢ / ask 79¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$43.6K has been traded on this event in total, $44 of it in the last 24 hours, across 8 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

On October 1, 2026, Reuters reported that the United States had told France and Germany to release emergency diesel stocks or face a potential US diesel export ban, as Washington presses European countries to draw down their reserves to ease surging diesel prices. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-tells-france-germany-release-diesel-stocks-or-face-us-export-ban-sources-say-2026-10-01/ This market will resolve to “Yes” if Eurostat publishes a figure for the European Union’s closing stock of EU emergency stocks of gas oil and diesel oil for the month of December 2026 that is greater than or equal to the specified value. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The relevant figure is the value in Eurostat’s “Oil products stock levels - monthly data” dataset (nrg_stk_oilm) for: Geopolitical entity “European Union - 27 countries (from 2020)”; Standard international energy product classification “Gas oil and diesel oil”; Stock or flow “Closing stock - EU emergency”; Unit “Thousand tonnes”; Time “2026-12”. This market will resolve as soon as Eurostat first publishes a figure for December 2026. Revisions to that figure published afterward will not be considered unless in the case of obvious data integrity issues. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/nrg_stk_oilm__custom_22993801/default/table

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 200 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Hideous-RacerYes200$153
Gleaming-HandlebarNo163$38
Snappy-RoosterYes140$107
0x36c9d921…No118$28
Reflecting-Taxi-WaspNo105$25
Unlined-PoleYes100$77
Kaleidoscopic-OuthouseNo100$24
Prudent-Realization-FarrowYes80$61
Prestigious-Zephyr-JailNo70$17
Belated-GlueNo40$9

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL Yes — $394 at 88.7%SELL Yes — $294 at 85.0%BUY No — $168 at 84.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 12:08 AM ETYesBUY77.0%$34
Oct 23, 03:05 AM ETNoBUY16.0%$1
Oct 21, 01:00 PM ETYesBUY10.0%$2
Oct 21, 05:05 AM ETNoSELL52.0%$10
Oct 19, 05:01 AM ETNoBUY15.0%$5
Oct 18, 09:12 PM ETYesBUY7.0%$11
Oct 17, 02:08 PM ETYesSELL85.0%$17
Oct 17, 01:54 PM ETYesBUY6.0%$6
Oct 16, 11:08 PM ETYesSELL12.0%$78
Oct 16, 11:06 PM ETYesSELL85.0%$294

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 30M+ at 76.5%. Next is 31M+ at 74.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/eu-emergency-diesel-stocks-end-of-december-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026??

$43.6K in total volume, with $44 traded in the last 24 hours across 8 markets.

When does EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/nrg_stk_oilm__custom_22993801/default/table.

What is the most likely outcome of EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026?, according to Polymarket traders?

30M+, priced at 76.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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