As of October 24, 2026, 06:31 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 30M+ at 96.5% in EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026? — $50.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 30M+, is priced at 96.5%.
Since October 02, 2026, 30M+ has traded between 50.0% and 97.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 96.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 96.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 96.4% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 96.3% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 96.3% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 96.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 96.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 96.5% |
30M+ is favored at 96.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30M+ | 96¢ | 96.5% | — | $2.0K | 4.0% |
| 31M+ | 94¢ | 94.5% | -0.5 pts | $2.2K | 4.4% |
| 32M+ | 94¢ | 93.5% | -1.0 pts | $11.6K | 22.8% |
| 33M+ | 90¢ | 89.5% | +0.5 pts | $5.8K | 11.4% |
| 34M+ | 84¢ | 84.5% | -1.0 pts | $10.9K | 21.4% |
| 35M+ | 75¢ | 75.0% | +0.5 pts | $10.4K | 20.4% |
| 36M+ | 28¢ | 28.5% | +3.5 pts | $5.1K | 10.1% |
| 37M+ | 5¢ | 5.1% | — | $2.8K | 5.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 96¢ / ask 97¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$50.9K has been traded on this event in total, $962 of it in the last 24 hours, across 8 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
On October 1, 2026, Reuters reported that the United States had told France and Germany to release emergency diesel stocks or face a potential US diesel export ban, as Washington presses European countries to draw down their reserves to ease surging diesel prices. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-tells-france-germany-release-diesel-stocks-or-face-us-export-ban-sources-say-2026-10-01/ This market will resolve to “Yes” if Eurostat publishes a figure for the European Union’s closing stock of EU emergency stocks of gas oil and diesel oil for the month of October 2026 that is greater than or equal to the specified value. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The relevant figure is the value in Eurostat’s “Oil products stock levels - monthly data” dataset (nrg_stk_oilm) for: Geopolitical entity “European Union - 27 countries (from 2020)”; Standard international energy product classification “Gas oil and diesel oil”; Stock or flow “Closing stock - EU emergency”; Unit “Thousand tonnes”; Time “2026-10”. This market will resolve as soon as Eurostat first publishes a figure for October 2026. Revisions to that figure published afterward will not be considered unless in the case of obvious data integrity issues. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/nrg_stk_oilm__custom_22993801/default/table
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 278 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exhausted-String | Yes | 278 | $268 |
| Great-Platter-Pavement | No | 100 | $4 |
| Grim-Garage | No | 97 | $3 |
| Hideous-Racer | Yes | 90 | $87 |
| Perfumed-Moat | No | 75 | $3 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 62 | $2 |
| Attentive-Crewman | Yes | 40 | $39 |
| Bossy-Thunderstorm | Yes | 30 | $29 |
| Brisk-Remark | Yes | 30 | $29 |
| Oddball-Poison | No | 30 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 01:45 PM ET | No | SELL | 13.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 01:45 PM ET | No | BUY | 15.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 01:45 PM ET | No | BUY | 14.0% | $33 |
| Oct 24, 01:45 PM ET | No | BUY | 15.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 01:45 PM ET | No | BUY | 14.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 01:45 PM ET | No | BUY | 15.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 11:59 AM ET | No | SELL | 24.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 08:55 AM ET | No | BUY | 26.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 08:54 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 76.0% | $100 |
| Oct 24, 08:54 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 76.0% | $30 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 30M+ at 96.5%. Next is 31M+ at 94.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/eu-emergency-diesel-stocks-end-of-october-2026?via=bro
$50.9K in total volume, with $962 traded in the last 24 hours across 8 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/nrg_stk_oilm__custom_22993801/default/table.
30M+, priced at 96.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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