As of October 24, 2026, 08:50 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 4.3% in EU lifts ban on Russian diesel imports by...? — $5.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 4.3%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.2 pts; past week: -6.2 pts.
Since October 09, 2026, December 31 has traded between 4.1% and 24.0%. It opened at 24.0% and last traded at 4.1%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 9.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 9.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 5.1% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 4.1% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 4.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 4.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4.1% |
December 31 is favored at 4.3%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 4¢ | 4.3% | +0.2 pts | $4.0K | 78.8% |
| October 31 | 1¢ | 0.9% | — | $1.1K | 21.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$5.1K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Since February 5, 2023, the European Union has prohibited the import of Russian petroleum products, including diesel fuel, under Council Regulation (EU) No 833/2014 (see: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions-against-russia/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Council of the European Union adopts a decision, regulation, or equivalent sanctions-relief action lifting the EU’s ban on imports of Russian diesel fuel, or if the Court of Justice of the European Union annuls that ban, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Actions which provide partial or full relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, suspend, or terminate the prohibition on the import of Russian diesel fuel into the European Union under Council Regulation (EU) No 833/2014, in whole or in part. Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions will qualify. If the prohibition lapses because it is not renewed by the Council, this will also qualify. Changes to the price cap on Russian petroleum products, including its level, suspension, or removal, will not qualify. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,036 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 1,036 | $45 |
| Prickly-Signup | No | 926 | $885 |
| Pushy-Expectancy | Yes | 312 | $14 |
| Bland-Caviar | No | 200 | $191 |
| Wobbly-Chain | No | 200 | $191 |
| Plush-Reminder | No | 128 | $123 |
| Jittery-Sunlight | Yes | 100 | $4 |
| Clueless-Dugout-Tomtom | No | 100 | $96 |
| Rotten-Atheist | No | 81 | $77 |
| Poised-Blessing | Yes | 51 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 10:35 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.3% | $9 |
| Oct 21, 05:17 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 05:17 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $19 |
| Oct 21, 05:09 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $25 |
| Oct 19, 03:10 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.7% | $5 |
| Oct 19, 10:49 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.7% | $20 |
| Oct 18, 03:06 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.0% | $6 |
| Oct 18, 03:04 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 0.7% | $1 |
| Oct 18, 01:59 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.0% | $1 |
| Oct 18, 01:59 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.9% | $4 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 4.3%. Next is October 31 at 0.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/eu-lifts-ban-on-russian-diesel-imports-by-20261009201217742?via=bro
$5.1K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 4.3% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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