As of October 24, 2026, 07:47 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 31 at 1.7% in Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? — $311.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, October 31, is priced at 1.7%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: +0.7 pts.
Since September 30, 2026, October 31 has traded between 0.8% and 10.5%. It opened at 10.5% and last traded at 2.2%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 3.9% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 1.6% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 1.7% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 1.3% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 0.8% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 1.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 2.2% |
October 31 is favored at 1.7%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 2¢ | 1.7% | -0.5 pts | $85.0K | 27.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 1¢ / ask 2¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$311.1K has been traded on this event in total, $2.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island. "No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 8,690 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Good-Natured-Mango | Yes | 8,690 | $143 |
| Cheerful-Ephemera | No | 4,312 | $4.2K |
| Damp-Accountant | No | 3,432 | $3.4K |
| Limited-Spec | No | 3,076 | $3.0K |
| Downright-Website | No | 2,137 | $2.1K |
| Incomplete-Cherry | No | 1,700 | $1.7K |
| NoSteinNoGate | Yes | 1,400 | $23 |
| Immense-Patriot | Yes | 1,328 | $22 |
| Required-Horn | Yes | 1,099 | $18 |
| Repulsive-Duration | Yes | 1,047 | $17 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:05 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.9% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 06:03 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.6% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 02:11 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.1% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 02:11 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.1% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 02:11 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.1% | $1.2K |
| Oct 24, 02:10 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.9% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 02:10 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.9% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 02:10 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.1% | $937 |
| Oct 24, 01:42 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.9% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 11:29 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.3% | $9 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 31 at 1.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/farsi-hengam-hormuz-or-kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-byptptpt-20260804165426109?via=bro
$311.1K in total volume, with $2.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
October 31, priced at 1.7% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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