As of October 24, 2026, 06:34 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Pause-Hike-Pause at 59.0% in Fed decisions (Oct-Jan) — $71.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Pause-Hike-Pause, is priced at 59.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.5 pts; past week: -1.0 pts.
Since September 30, 2026, Pause-Hike-Pause has traded between 18.5% and 62.5%. It opened at 18.5% and last traded at 58.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 40.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 55.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 60.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 52.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 50.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 58.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 58.0% |
Pause-Hike-Pause is favored at 59.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pause-Hike-Pause | 59¢ | 59.0% | +1.5 pts | $44.4K | 61.8% |
| Pause-Hike-Hike | 18¢ | 17.5% | — | $16.0K | 22.3% |
| Pause-Pause-Hike | 11¢ | 10.5% | +0.4 pts | $1.7K | 2.4% |
| Pause-Pause-Pause | 8¢ | 8.5% | -1.0 pts | $1.5K | 2.1% |
| Hike-Hike-Pause | 3¢ | 3.4% | -0.1 pts | $2.7K | 3.7% |
| Hike-Pause-Hike | 3¢ | 2.8% | +2.3 pts | $950 | 1.3% |
| Hike-Pause-Pause | 2¢ | 2.3% | -0.3 pts | $1.2K | 1.7% |
| Other | 1¢ | 1.1% | — | $1.7K | 2.3% |
| Hike-Hike-Hike | 1¢ | 0.6% | — | $1.7K | 2.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 58¢ / ask 60¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$71.8K has been traded on this event in total, $703 of it in the last 24 hours, across 9 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 27, 2027, 06:59 PM ET.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 27 to 28; December 8 to 9; and January 26 to 27. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,571 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Whirlwind-Maggot | Yes | 2,571 | $1.5K |
| Empty-Addiction | No | 2,285 | $937 |
| Knotty-Mud | Yes | 2,000 | $1.2K |
| White-Tabernacle | No | 1,996 | $818 |
| Hideous-Racer | Yes | 1,723 | $1.0K |
| Nautical-Placement | Yes | 1,604 | $947 |
| Queasy-Cougar | No | 1,522 | $624 |
| Testy-Operator | No | 1,320 | $541 |
| Polite-Belief | Yes | 1,000 | $590 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 948 | $389 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 11:58 AM ET | No | SELL | 40.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 11:40 AM ET | No | SELL | 40.0% | $77 |
| Oct 24, 04:03 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 60.0% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 03:18 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 60.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 02:18 AM ET | No | BUY | 41.0% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 02:17 AM ET | No | SELL | 40.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 02:17 AM ET | No | BUY | 41.0% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 02:17 AM ET | No | BUY | 83.0% | $35 |
| Oct 24, 02:17 AM ET | No | BUY | 41.0% | $17 |
| Oct 23, 11:36 PM ET | No | BUY | 83.0% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Pause-Hike-Pause at 59.0%. Next is Pause-Hike-Hike at 17.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decisions-oct-jan?via=bro
$71.8K in total volume, with $703 traded in the last 24 hours across 9 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 27, 2027, 06:59 PM ET.
Pause-Hike-Pause, priced at 59.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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