As of October 24, 2026, 06:29 PM ET, Polymarket traders price July 2027 Meeting at 50.0% in Fed rate cut by...? — $3.81M traded so far.
The leading outcome, July 2027 Meeting, is priced at 50.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: -1.0 pts; past month: +1.5 pts.
Since September 16, 2026, July 2027 Meeting has traded between 43.5% and 59.5%. It opened at 50.5% and last traded at 50.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 51.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 51.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 49.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 51.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 50.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 50.0% |
July 2027 Meeting is favored at 50.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2027 Meeting | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.5 pts | $127 | 0.0% |
| April 2027 Meeting | 31¢ | 31.0% | +2.0 pts | $51 | 0.0% |
| June 2027 Meeting | 28¢ | 28.5% | +0.5 pts | $27 | 0.0% |
| March 2027 Meeting | 14¢ | 13.5% | +0.5 pts | $2.2K | 0.1% |
| January 2027 Meeting | 10¢ | 9.9% | +3.4 pts | $7.6K | 0.2% |
| December 2026 Meeting | 3¢ | 3.1% | -0.2 pts | $424.7K | 11.1% |
| October 2026 Meeting | 0¢ | 0.2% | -0.2 pts | $236.3K | 6.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 60¢ (bid 20¢ / ask 80¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.81M has been traded on this event in total, $1.6K of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 28, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for July 2027, currently scheduled for July 27 to 28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no July meeting takes place by August 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 100 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innocent-Scow | Yes | 100 | $50 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 59 | $30 |
| Nice-Perennial | No | 34 | $17 |
| Clueless-Dugout-Tomtom | No | 6 | $3 |
| Spry-Causeway | Yes | 1 | $1 |
| 0x3c5c22d1… | No | 1 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:01 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 0.3% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 12:05 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.8% | $13 |
| Oct 24, 12:05 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.8% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 12:03 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.8% | $19 |
| Oct 24, 12:03 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.8% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 12:02 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.8% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 12:02 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.8% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 12:01 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.8% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.8% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.8% | $14 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is July 2027 Meeting at 50.0%. Next is April 2027 Meeting at 31.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-cut-by-629?via=bro
$3.81M in total volume, with $1.6K traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 28, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
July 2027 Meeting, priced at 50.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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