As of October 24, 2026, 09:12 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 94.5% in Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026? — $877 traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 94.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +1.0 pts; past month: -5.5 pts.
Since August 12, 2026, No has traded between 56.0% and 95.5%. It opened at 83.5% and last traded at 94.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 94.5% |
No is favored at 94.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 94¢ | 94.5% | — | $877 | 100.0% |
| Yes | 6¢ | 5.5% | — | $877 | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$877 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe. Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 214 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outlandish-Complicity | No | 214 | $202 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 196 | $11 |
| White-Quarter | No | 72 | $68 |
| Slow-Exhibit | No | 60 | $57 |
| Past-Laboratory | Yes | 39 | $2 |
| Plump-Implementation | Yes | 37 | $2 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 24 | $1 |
| Oddball-Poison | Yes | 20 | $1 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | Yes | 17 | $1 |
| Grim-Garage | Yes | 17 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 03:15 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.0% | $3 |
| Oct 06, 10:49 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $0 |
| Oct 06, 06:57 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $5 |
| Oct 04, 11:21 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $11 |
| Oct 04, 11:21 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $4 |
| Oct 04, 11:21 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $15 |
| Oct 04, 11:15 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $5 |
| Oct 04, 11:15 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $5 |
| Oct 03, 10:39 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $5 |
| Oct 03, 01:39 AM ET | No | BUY | 92.0% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 94.5%. Next is Yes at 5.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/federal-capital-gains-taxes-be-cut-by-2026-20260812124430709?via=bro
$877 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 94.5% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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