Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?

As of October 24, 2026, 09:12 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 94.5% in Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026? — $877 traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
No
94%
A 94.5% price implies roughly a 94-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D +1.0 pts30D −5.5 pts
No94.5%
Yes5.5%
Bid
5¢
Ask
6¢
Spread
1¢
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Range since August 12, 2026: 56.0% – 95.5% · Opened at 83.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?
Category
Taxes, Trump, Fiscal, Economy, Politics
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$877
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$171
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 94.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 94.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: +1.0 pts; past month: -5.5 pts.

Since August 12, 2026, No has traded between 56.0% and 95.5%. It opened at 83.5% and last traded at 94.5%.

DayClose
Oct 13, 202695.5%
Oct 15, 202695.5%
Oct 16, 202695.5%
Oct 18, 202694.5%
Oct 19, 202694.5%
Oct 20, 202694.5%
Oct 24, 202694.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 94.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No94¢94.5%—$877100.0%
Yes6¢5.5%—$877100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$877 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe. Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 214 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Outlandish-ComplicityNo214$202
Belated-GlueYes196$11
White-QuarterNo72$68
Slow-ExhibitNo60$57
Past-LaboratoryYes39$2
Plump-ImplementationYes37$2
Known-UseYes24$1
Oddball-PoisonYes20$1
Straight-WrinkleYes17$1
Grim-GarageYes17$1

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $68 at 91.0%BUY No — $54 at 90.0%BUY No — $39 at 92.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 23, 03:15 AM ETYesBUY6.0%$3
Oct 06, 10:49 AM ETYesBUY5.0%$0
Oct 06, 06:57 AM ETNoSELL95.0%$5
Oct 04, 11:21 AM ETNoSELL94.0%$11
Oct 04, 11:21 AM ETNoSELL94.0%$4
Oct 04, 11:21 AM ETNoSELL95.0%$15
Oct 04, 11:15 AM ETNoSELL94.0%$5
Oct 04, 11:15 AM ETNoSELL95.0%$5
Oct 03, 10:39 PM ETNoSELL94.0%$5
Oct 03, 01:39 AM ETNoBUY92.0%$5

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026??

As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 94.5%. Next is Yes at 5.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/federal-capital-gains-taxes-be-cut-by-2026-20260812124430709?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026??

$877 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 94.5% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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