As of October 24, 2026, 06:33 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2026 at 8.9% in Fetterman leaves the Democrats by...? — $49.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2026, is priced at 8.9%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.4 pts; past week: +0.7 pts; past month: -0.1 pts.
Since September 10, 2026, December 31, 2026 has traded between 7.5% and 13.5%. It opened at 9.0% and last traded at 8.9%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 8.2% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 8.2% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 8.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 8.3% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 8.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 8.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 8.9% |
December 31, 2026 is favored at 8.9%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 9¢ | 8.9% | +0.4 pts | $26.9K | 54.3% |
| November 2, 2026 | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $21.3K | 43.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 9¢ / ask 9¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$49.5K has been traded on this event in total, $763 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Fetterman officially announces that he is leaving, or formally leaves, the Democratic Party by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Announcements from Fetterman that he will join the Republican Party, become an independent, join another political party, or otherwise cease to be a member of the Democratic Party will qualify. A consensus of credible reporting that Fetterman has formally left the Democratic Party will also suffice. Statements criticizing the Democratic Party, voting with Republicans, endorsing Republican candidates, describing himself as bipartisan or independent-minded, or expressing disagreement with Democratic Party positions will not qualify unless accompanied by an official announcement that he is leaving the Democratic Party or a consensus of credible reporting that he has formally left the Democratic Party. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from John Fetterman; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,859 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Short-Term-Criminal | No | 3,859 | $3.5K |
| Functional-Heartthrob | Yes | 2,153 | $193 |
| Humble-Cheque | Yes | 1,037 | $93 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 486 | $43 |
| Gifted-Rancher | Yes | 252 | $23 |
| Powerful-Wool-Acquaintance | No | 235 | $214 |
| Hideous-Racer | No | 200 | $182 |
| Beloved-Increase | Yes | 200 | $18 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | Yes | 123 | $11 |
| Green-Birdwatcher | Yes | 111 | $10 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 12:51 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.3% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 10:18 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 10:18 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 09:13 PM ET | No | SELL | 91.1% | $33 |
| Oct 23, 09:13 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.7% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 09:13 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.6% | $8 |
| Oct 23, 09:13 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.7% | $3 |
| Oct 22, 02:18 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.3% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 06:06 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.6% | $7 |
| Oct 21, 05:49 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.6% | $6 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 8.9%. Next is November 2, 2026 at 0.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/fetterman-leaves-the-democrats-before-the-midterms-20260720221037014?via=bro
$49.5K in total volume, with $763 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, 2026, priced at 8.9% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.