As of October 24, 2026, 07:50 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 4.9% in John Fetterman out by...? — $139.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 4.9%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.1 pts; past week: +1.8 pts; past month: +2.5 pts.
Since November 15, 2025, December 31 has traded between 2.1% and 54.5%. It opened at 27.0% and last traded at 4.9%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 3.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 3.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 3.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 3.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 4.8% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4.8% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 4.9% |
December 31 is favored at 4.9%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 5¢ | 4.9% | +0.1 pts | $54.2K | 38.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 5¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$139.3K has been traded on this event in total, $2.0K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Fetterman ceases to be U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of John Fetterman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from John Fetterman and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,351 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hideous-Racer | No | 2,351 | $2.2K |
| Mediocre-Wren | Yes | 1,961 | $95 |
| Flat-Badger | No | 1,093 | $1.0K |
| Kaleidoscopic-Hemisphere | Yes | 708 | $34 |
| Snappy-Rooster | Yes | 499 | $24 |
| Skeletal-Liver | No | 400 | $381 |
| Fancy-Doughnut | Yes | 369 | $18 |
| 0x2e0ede77… | No | 271 | $258 |
| Immense-Businessman | No | 250 | $238 |
| Sparse-Outset | Yes | 229 | $11 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:15 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.1% | $100 |
| Oct 23, 09:07 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.5% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 12:24 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.1% | $9 |
| Oct 23, 12:24 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 06:29 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.5% | $12 |
| Oct 22, 08:35 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.7% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 07:58 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.9% | $206 |
| Oct 22, 03:49 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.5% | $110 |
| Oct 22, 02:18 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.5% | $29 |
| Oct 21, 09:52 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.4% | $149 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 4.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/fetterman-out-before-2027?via=bro
$139.3K in total volume, with $2.0K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 4.9% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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