As of October 24, 2026, 09:08 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Yes at 89.0% in First Round Outright Winner in the LA-04 House Election? — $1.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Yes, is priced at 89.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: +4.5 pts; past month: -6.5 pts.
Since August 14, 2026, Yes has traded between 62.0% and 95.5%. It opened at 75.5% and last traded at 88.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 84.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 85.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 86.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 86.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 86.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 87.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 88.0% |
Yes is favored at 89.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 89¢ | 89.0% | +0.5 pts | $1.3K | 100.0% |
| No | 11¢ | 11.0% | -0.5 pts | $1.3K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 87¢ / ask 91¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.3K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-04 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-04 House election.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 285 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wan-Gymnastics | Yes | 285 | $254 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 241 | $26 |
| Primary-Agent | Yes | 151 | $135 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 120 | $13 |
| Forthright-Forager | Yes | 44 | $39 |
| Plastic-Duck | No | 40 | $4 |
| Past-Disguise | No | 21 | $2 |
| Mortified-Wetland | No | 20 | $2 |
| Charming-Kidney-Imagination | No | 19 | $2 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 9 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 02:18 AM ET | No | SELL | 13.0% | $3 |
| Oct 18, 07:33 AM ET | No | SELL | 16.0% | $1 |
| Oct 18, 07:33 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 85.0% | $17 |
| Oct 18, 07:32 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 85.0% | $20 |
| Oct 09, 06:56 PM ET | No | BUY | 10.0% | $4 |
| Oct 09, 04:26 PM ET | No | SELL | 6.0% | $0 |
| Oct 09, 04:25 PM ET | No | BUY | 10.0% | $1 |
| Oct 09, 04:24 PM ET | No | SELL | 6.0% | $1 |
| Oct 09, 04:24 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 89.0% | $13 |
| Oct 09, 02:55 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 93.0% | $19 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is Yes at 89.0%. Next is No at 11.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/first-round-outright-winner-in-the-la-04-house-election?via=bro
$1.3K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Yes, priced at 89.0% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.