As of October 24, 2026, 08:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 74.1% in First Round Outright Winner in the LA-05 House Election? — $2.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 74.1%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +10.9 pts; past week: +13.4 pts; past month: +21.2 pts.
Since August 14, 2026, No has traded between 22.0% and 99.0%. It opened at 22.0% and last traded at 85.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 72.4% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 87.8% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 87.4% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 92.3% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 91.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 85.9% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 85.0% |
No is favored at 74.1%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 74¢ | 74.1% | -10.9 pts | $2.8K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 26¢ | 25.9% | +10.9 pts | $2.8K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 31¢ (bid 10¢ / ask 41¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.8K has been traded on this event in total, $7 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-05 House election.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 556 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Awesome-Availability | No | 556 | $412 |
| Powerless-Bijou | Yes | 192 | $50 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 172 | $44 |
| Straight-Apprehension | Yes | 100 | $26 |
| Essential-Diarist | Yes | 91 | $24 |
| Bumpy-Conscience | No | 83 | $61 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | Yes | 49 | $13 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 43 | $11 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 30 | $8 |
| Primary-Agent | No | 23 | $17 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:08 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 16.1% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 11:42 PM ET | No | SELL | 76.4% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 11:19 PM ET | No | BUY | 84.5% | $13 |
| Oct 21, 11:19 PM ET | No | BUY | 85.5% | $13 |
| Oct 20, 06:27 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.9% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 05:57 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.8% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 03:26 PM ET | No | BUY | 85.2% | $7 |
| Oct 20, 12:37 PM ET | No | SELL | 81.0% | $7 |
| Oct 20, 11:51 AM ET | No | SELL | 89.1% | $18 |
| Oct 20, 11:48 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.0% | $8 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 74.1%. Next is Yes at 25.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/first-round-outright-winner-in-the-la-05-house-election?via=bro
$2.8K in total volume, with $7 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 74.1% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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