As of October 24, 2026, 06:36 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Aaron Bean (R) at 82.0% in FL-04 House Election Winner — $36.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Aaron Bean (R), is priced at 82.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.0 pts; past week: -3.5 pts; past month: -5.5 pts.
Since January 28, 2026, Aaron Bean (R) has traded between 48.0% and 90.5%. It opened at 63.5% and last traded at 82.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 86.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 86.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 86.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 85.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 81.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 83.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 82.0% |
Aaron Bean (R) is favored at 82.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Bean (R) | 82¢ | 82.0% | -1.0 pts | $19.7K | 54.7% |
| LaShonda Holloway (D) | 18¢ | 18.5% | +2.0 pts | $16.3K | 45.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 81¢ / ask 83¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$36.0K has been traded on this event in total, $624 of it in the last 24 hours, across 8 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Resolution source: https://www.fec.gov/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,291 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 2,291 | $412 |
| SnowLover7 | Yes | 1,740 | $1.4K |
| Little-Gold | No | 1,360 | $245 |
| Winding-Daylight | Yes | 649 | $532 |
| Major-Dust | Yes | 419 | $344 |
| Tense-Fort | Yes | 300 | $246 |
| Prickly-Eyrie | No | 284 | $51 |
| Powerful-Chino | Yes | 192 | $157 |
| Daring-Pirate | Yes | 170 | $139 |
| Our-Dough | Yes | 150 | $123 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:45 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 18.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 10:58 AM ET | No | BUY | 18.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 10:58 AM ET | No | BUY | 82.0% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 10:58 AM ET | No | SELL | 82.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 08:29 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 83.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 11:46 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 82.0% | $8 |
| Oct 23, 11:46 PM ET | No | BUY | 18.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 11:46 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 18.5% | $11 |
| Oct 23, 11:46 PM ET | No | BUY | 18.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 11:46 PM ET | No | SELL | 82.0% | $223 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Aaron Bean (R) at 82.0%. Next is LaShonda Holloway (D) at 18.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/fl-04-house-election-winner?via=bro
$36.0K in total volume, with $624 traded in the last 24 hours across 8 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.fec.gov/.
Aaron Bean (R), priced at 82.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.